xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CBJ's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CBJ power play · PK = DET power play · Leading = CBJ ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CBJ attacks◀ all strengths
DET attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CBJ attacks the left net, DET the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CBJ's side and mirrored for DET: “CBJ PP” shows CBJ's power-play attempts on the left and DET's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
CBJ DET
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 2
Expected goals
2.06 3.78
xG%share of xG
35% 65%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 4
Shots on goal
21 33
Attempts
41 85
xG by period · whole game 1st0.8–1.42nd0.7–1.13rd0.5–1.3

The Blue Jackets beat the Red Wings 4–2 on the road despite being out-created 3.8–2.1 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. The Red Wings power play made 1.7 xG on 24 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative CBJ − DET xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2CBJ AHEAD ▲DET AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CBJ minus DET expected goals. Above zero CBJ is ahead on chances, below zero DET is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CBJCharlie Coyle 1st14:40 PP 0.33
CBJValeri Nichushkin 1st18:44 0.07
CBJJack Williams 2nd3:55 0.13
CBJCole Sillinger 3rd19:49 EN 0.67
DETBen Chiarot 3rd6:39 0.01
DETMichael Rasmussen 3rd14:19 0.16
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

CBJ
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Zach WerenskiD23:03+0.90Jack WilliamsF9:13+0.47Kirill MarchenkoF14:03+0.12Kent JohnsonF13:48+0.06Luca Del Bel BelluzF10:40+0.05Ryan LombergF11:14+0.01Jake ChristiansenD11:26-0.08Mathieu OlivierF14:00-0.21Conor GarlandF13:38-0.48Sean MonahanF16:15-0.49Carson SoucyD16:20-0.54Denton MateychukD23:11-0.55Cole SillingerF17:40-0.57Valeri NichushkinF17:23-0.68Charlie CoyleF18:03-0.80Danton HeinenF14:25-0.86Erik GudbransonD19:34-1.30Ivan ProvorovD26:04-2.30
0.50.5110Jack WilliamsF9:13+0.47Zach WerenskiD15:48+0.30Mathieu OlivierF11:38+0.07Luca Del Bel BelluzF10:40+0.05Ryan LombergF10:42+0.01Valeri NichushkinF11:06-0.07Erik GudbransonD15:27-0.08Jake ChristiansenD11:25-0.08Charlie CoyleF11:12-0.23Sean MonahanF11:50-0.24Carson SoucyD14:58-0.34Cole SillingerF12:52-0.41Denton MateychukD15:55-0.47Conor GarlandF11:53-0.48Kirill MarchenkoF12:14-0.51Kent JohnsonF12:07-0.56Danton HeinenF11:57-0.57Ivan ProvorovD18:53-1.08
0.250.250.50.50Kirill MarchenkoF1:00+0.44Charlie CoyleF0:59+0.44Zach WerenskiD0:59+0.44Cole SillingerF0:59+0.44Kent JohnsonF0:55+0.39Erik GudbransonD0:04+0.05Valeri NichushkinF1:12+0.00Ivan ProvorovD1:12+0.00Conor GarlandF1:12+0.00Denton MateychukD1:12+0.00Sean MonahanF1:11+0.00
0.50.5111.51.50Ryan LombergF0:32+0.00Conor GarlandF0:01+0.00Jake ChristiansenD0:01+0.00Carson SoucyD0:54-0.20Sean MonahanF1:47-0.25Zach WerenskiD3:01-0.26Danton HeinenF1:38-0.28Mathieu OlivierF1:28-0.28Denton MateychukD3:21-0.45Valeri NichushkinF3:42-0.62Cole SillingerF2:36-0.83Charlie CoyleF4:12-1.19Erik GudbransonD4:03-1.27Ivan ProvorovD4:42-1.28
DET
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Alex DeBrincatF19:20+1.68Viktor ArvidssonF16:41+1.32Moritz SeiderD25:33+1.27Andrew CoppF20:28+1.23Lucas RaymondF18:44+1.17Axel Sandin-PellikkaD20:21+0.75Justin FaulkD16:41+0.62Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF13:00+0.54Michael RasmussenF17:02+0.47Nate DanielsonF12:20+0.42Emmitt FinnieF16:34+0.37Keegan KolesarF12:19+0.34J.T. CompherF12:34+0.13Marco KasperF15:26-0.07Carter MazurF9:52-0.11Ben ChiarotD18:13-0.17Albert JohanssonD17:31-0.22Anton JohanssonD14:56-0.29
0.50.5110Michael RasmussenF12:02+0.68Axel Sandin-PellikkaD16:42+0.47Emmitt FinnieF11:41+0.38Moritz SeiderD15:35+0.36Keegan KolesarF11:26+0.34Justin FaulkD13:26+0.33Albert JohanssonD14:44+0.32Nate DanielsonF9:48+0.25Marco KasperF12:15+0.24Alex DeBrincatF12:36+0.23J.T. CompherF11:44+0.19Andrew CoppF13:00+0.17Ben ChiarotD17:22+0.16Lucas RaymondF12:52+0.13Viktor ArvidssonF9:04+0.07Anton JohanssonD14:06+0.04Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF11:35+0.02Carter MazurF9:52-0.11
0.50.5111.51.50Moritz SeiderD5:21+1.44Viktor ArvidssonF5:01+1.44Andrew CoppF4:59+1.44Alex DeBrincatF4:55+1.44Lucas RaymondF4:03+1.05Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF1:25+0.52Axel Sandin-PellikkaD3:04+0.29Emmitt FinnieF3:00+0.29Justin FaulkD2:38+0.29Nate DanielsonF2:32+0.16Michael RasmussenF2:30+0.16Marco KasperF0:27+0.12
0.250.250.50.50Keegan KolesarF0:53+0.00Marco KasperF0:53+0.00Justin FaulkD0:37+0.00Axel Sandin-PellikkaD0:35+0.00J.T. CompherF0:41-0.06Emmitt FinnieF0:41-0.06Moritz SeiderD0:45-0.11Albert JohanssonD0:45-0.11Ben ChiarotD0:50-0.33Anton JohanssonD0:50-0.33Andrew CoppF0:37-0.38Michael RasmussenF0:37-0.38

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

CBJ
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
DET
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
CBJ won the chances DET won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
GibsonCoppDeBrincatRaymondMazurDanielsonBrandsegg-NygårdCompherKolesarRasmussenArvidssonKasperFinnieChiarotSandin-PellikkaSeiderJohanssonFaulkJohanssonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GreavesMarchenkoJohnsonSillingerMonahanNichushkinGarlandCoyleHeinenOlivierLombergDel Bel BelluzWilliamsSoucyProvorovWerenskiMateychukGudbransonChristiansen
How to read this

Rows are CBJ's skaters, columns DET's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.