xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · COL skaters · UTA skaters · COL lines · UTA lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →

COL 0 – 2 UTA

Colorado Avalanche at Utah Mammoth

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from COL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = COL power play · PK = UTA power play · Leading = COL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

COL attacks◀ all strengths
UTA attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: COL attacks the left net, UTA the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from COL's side and mirrored for UTA: “COL PP” shows COL's power-play attempts on the left and UTA's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
COL UTA
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
0 2
Expected goals
2.10 4.92
xG%share of xG
30% 70%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 2
Shots on goal
25 35
Attempts
48 75
xG by period · whole game 1st1.0–1.92nd0.8–1.93rd0.4–1.1

The Mammoth beat the Avalanche 2–0 at home, and the chances agreed: UTA out-created COL 4.9–2.1 in expected goals. The Mammoth power play made 2.4 xG on 23 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative COL − UTA xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2+3−3COL AHEAD ▲UTA AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative COL minus UTA expected goals. Above zero COL is ahead on chances, below zero UTA is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

COL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Matthew DiMarsicoF12:30+0.69Alex GagneD16:25+0.29Fabian LysellF16:32-0.12T.J. HughesF17:14-0.20Tristen NielsenF15:50-0.22Gustav StjernbergD15:38-0.23Taylor MakarF5:09-0.27Adam BeckmanF15:58-0.36Sean BehrensD13:19-0.49Nicolas RoyF19:46-0.79Nikita PrishchepovF13:54-0.88Maros JedlickaF15:24-0.91Josh MansonD15:53-1.00Gavin BrindleyF18:12-1.05Brent BurnsD19:00-1.07Vinnie HinostrozaF17:49-1.33Wyatt AamodtD16:07-1.67Keaton MiddletonD17:42-2.18
UTA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.5330Clayton KellerF21:04+2.27Nick SchmaltzF20:33+2.26Dylan GuentherF18:54+2.21Logan CooleyF19:40+1.88Mikhail SergachevD24:30+1.73Anders LeeF15:11+0.99John MarinoD20:39+0.95Michael CarconeF14:01+0.78Vincent TrocheckF19:27+0.76Daniil ButF11:09+0.51Andrew PeekeD13:53+0.37Nate SchmidtD15:30+0.23Dmitri SimashevD12:36+0.22Lawson CrouseF11:43+0.17Barrett HaytonF14:15+0.14Kevin StenlundF11:08+0.01Jack McBainF10:43-0.10MacKenzie WeegarD17:04-0.27

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

COL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Nicolas RoyFabian LysellTristen Nielsen2:28-0.16L2Vinnie HinostrozaMaros JedlickaNikita Prishchepov2:08+0.11L3Gavin BrindleyMatthew DiMarsicoT.J. Hughes1:50+0.13SPAREAdam Beckman15:58-0.36SPARETaylor Makar5:09-0.27DEFENCE PAIRSD1Brent BurnsJosh Manson11:52-0.96D2Keaton MiddletonWyatt Aamodt10:39-1.52D3Alex GagneGustav Stjernberg8:56+0.18SPARESean Behrens13:19-0.491ST2ND3RD01.751.75
UTA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Lawson CrouseBarrett HaytonJack McBain7:48-0.03L2Vincent TrocheckNick SchmaltzClayton Keller7:15+0.47L3Anders LeeDylan GuentherLogan Cooley6:18+0.29L4Kevin StenlundMichael CarconeDaniil But5:55+0.26DEFENCE PAIRSD1MacKenzie WeegarMikhail Sergachev10:59-0.19D2Nate SchmidtJohn Marino9:34+0.52D3Andrew PeekeDmitri Simashev7:17+0.371ST2ND3RD011

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
COL won the chances UTA won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
WedgewoodRoyLysellNielsenHinostrozaJedlickaPrishchepovBrindleyDiMarsicoHughesBeckmanMakarBurnsMansonMiddletonAamodtGagneStjernbergBehrensVejmelkaCrouseHaytonMcBainTrocheckSchmaltzKellerLeeGuentherCooleyStenlundCarconeButWeegarSergachevSchmidtMarinoPeekeSimashevGL1L2L3FD1D2D3DGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are COL's skaters, columns UTA's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
UTAJack McBain 1st6:38 0.05
UTALogan Cooley 1st10:35 PP 0.40