xJawn NHL expected goals

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ANA 2 – 6 LAK

Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from ANA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = ANA power play · PK = LAK power play · Leading = ANA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

ANA attacks◀ all strengths
LAK attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: ANA attacks the left net, LAK the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from ANA's side and mirrored for LAK: “ANA PP” shows ANA's power-play attempts on the left and LAK's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
ANA LAK
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 6
Expected goals
1.94 3.28
xG%share of xG
37% 63%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
0 3
Shots on goal
19 20
Attempts
49 47
xG by period · whole game 1st0.9–0.92nd0.5–1.23rd0.5–1.2

The Kings beat the Ducks 6–2 at home, and the chances agreed: LAK out-created ANA 3.3–1.9 in expected goals. LAK scored 6 on 3.3 expected.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative ANA − LAK xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5ANA AHEAD ▲LAK AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative ANA minus LAK expected goals. Above zero ANA is ahead on chances, below zero LAK is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

ANA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Mikael GranlundF17:04+0.36Beckett SenneckeF17:41+0.36Frank VatranoF12:18+0.23Cutter GauthierF17:18+0.09Tristan LuneauD19:24-0.00Nikita KlepovF14:22-0.00Judd CaulfieldF13:39-0.01Leo CarlssonF17:41-0.07Jackson LaCombeD23:10-0.13Nikita NesterenkoF10:21-0.17Travis MitchellD19:09-0.18Nico MyatovicF14:25-0.30Ryan PoehlingF13:59-0.30Tyson HindsD19:34-0.31Alex KillornF16:06-0.87Tim WasheF12:04-0.88Nick JensenD17:48-1.17Stian SolbergD18:03-1.25
LAK
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Artemi PanarinF20:28+1.26Adrian KempeF18:15+1.06Quinton ByfieldF19:53+0.90Mats ZuccarelloF17:22+0.80Brandt ClarkeD20:08+0.73Erik HaulaF13:46+0.72Drew DoughtyD19:14+0.47Andre LeeF10:31+0.31Samuel HeleniusF10:28+0.25Joel ArmiaF11:47+0.21Brian DumoulinD18:40+0.16Alex TurcotteF13:18+0.14Trevor MooreF15:40+0.12Cody CeciD20:33+0.09Alex LaferriereF13:31+0.06Mikey AndersonD23:05+0.02Scott LaughtonF16:45-0.00Kirill KirsanovD14:19-0.24

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

ANA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Alex KillornCutter GauthierLeo Carlsson8:54-0.46L2Judd CaulfieldNikita NesterenkoTim Washe7:00-0.09L3Frank VatranoRyan PoehlingNikita Klepov6:33+0.00L4Mikael GranlundNico MyatovicBeckett Sennecke4:54+0.01DEFENCE PAIRSD1Nick JensenStian Solberg15:12-1.28D2Jackson LaCombeTyson Hinds9:24-0.34D3Tristan LuneauTravis Mitchell8:39-0.021ST2ND3RD01.751.75
LAK
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Adrian KempeArtemi PanarinQuinton Byfield16:51+1.06L2Erik HaulaScott LaughtonTrevor Moore9:56+0.31L3Mats ZuccarelloAlex TurcotteAlex Laferriere9:40-0.20L4Joel ArmiaAndre LeeSamuel Helenius8:06+0.27DEFENCE PAIRSD1Cody CeciMikey Anderson19:09+0.08D2Drew DoughtyBrian Dumoulin16:33+0.14D3Brandt ClarkeKirill Kirsanov12:43-0.261ST2ND3RD01.751.75

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
ANA won the chances LAK won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
DostalKillornGauthierCarlssonCaulfieldNesterenkoWasheVatranoPoehlingKlepovGranlundMyatovicSenneckeJensenSolbergLaCombeHindsLuneauMitchellKuemperKempePanarinByfieldHaulaLaughtonMooreZuccarelloTurcotteLaferriereArmiaLeeHeleniusCeciAndersonDoughtyDumoulinClarkeKirsanovGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are ANA's skaters, columns LAK's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
ANANikita Nesterenko 1st7:06 0.19
ANABeckett Sennecke 1st16:32 PP 0.19
LAKScott Laughton 1st8:44 0.36
LAKAdrian Kempe 1st19:18 0.16
LAKMats Zuccarello 2nd8:56 PP 0.08
LAKAlex Turcotte 3rd1:39 0.04
LAKAlex Turcotte 3rd8:56 0.09
LAKErik Haula 3rd11:52 PP 0.33