xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 25, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from NYR's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = NYR power play · PK = NYI power play · Leading = NYR ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

NYR attacks◀ all strengths
NYI attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: NYR attacks the left net, NYI the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from NYR's side and mirrored for NYI: “NYR PP” shows NYR's power-play attempts on the left and NYI's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
NYR NYI
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
6 1
Expected goals
3.09 1.69
xG%share of xG
65% 35%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 3
Shots on goal
27 16
Attempts
57 29
xG by period · whole game 1st0.7–0.62nd1.8–0.93rd0.6–0.2

The Rangers beat the Islanders 6–1 on the road, and the chances agreed: NYR out-created NYI 3.1–1.7 in expected goals. NYR scored 6 on 3.1 expected.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative NYR − NYI xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5NYR AHEAD ▲NYI AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative NYR minus NYI expected goals. Above zero NYR is ahead on chances, below zero NYI is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
NYROliver Bjorkstrand 1st3:48 0.17
NYRJ.T. Miller 1st4:43 PP 0.11
NYRTye Kartye 2nd3:27 0.03
NYRGabe Perreault 2nd13:12 0.07
NYRWill Cuylle 2nd17:04 0.48
NYRMika Zibanejad 3rd1:23 PP 0.09
NYIPierre Engvall 3rd11:22 0.05
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

NYR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Noah LabaF14:29+1.00Marcus PetterssonD22:14+0.96Adam FoxD17:53+0.86Eeli TolvanenF14:38+0.77Will CuylleF14:44+0.77Vladislav GavrikovD20:35+0.58Sean DurziD21:17+0.58J.T. MillerF15:02+0.45Pavel DorofeyevF16:04+0.39Alexis LafrenièreF15:33+0.35Mika ZibanejadF14:57+0.28Alberts SmitsD18:18+0.26Matt RempeF13:43+0.23Tye KartyeF17:02+0.23Joseph VelenoF16:59+0.18Oliver BjorkstrandF13:05-0.13Gabe PerreaultF12:51-0.16Braden SchneiderD16:42-0.58
0.50.5111.51.50Marcus PetterssonD20:12+0.95Noah LabaF12:18+0.83Eeli TolvanenF11:35+0.79Will CuylleF11:58+0.78Sean DurziD17:48+0.60Adam FoxD15:07+0.53Vladislav GavrikovD17:05+0.43Alberts SmitsD17:23+0.26Tye KartyeF13:56+0.24Matt RempeF12:46+0.23Joseph VelenoF13:59+0.19J.T. MillerF12:33+0.13Pavel DorofeyevF13:15+0.06Oliver BjorkstrandF12:41+0.06Gabe PerreaultF12:22+0.02Alexis LafrenièreF12:45+0.02Mika ZibanejadF12:03-0.05Braden SchneiderD14:05-0.56
0.250.250.50.50Pavel DorofeyevF2:49+0.32Alexis LafrenièreF2:48+0.32Mika ZibanejadF2:46+0.32Adam FoxD2:30+0.32J.T. MillerF2:29+0.32Vladislav GavrikovD1:14+0.17Noah LabaF1:02+0.17Marcus PetterssonD0:03+0.01Joseph VelenoF0:58+0.00Tye KartyeF0:58+0.00Matt RempeF0:57+0.00Braden SchneiderD0:55+0.00Alberts SmitsD0:46+0.00Sean DurziD1:51-0.01Eeli TolvanenF1:47-0.01Will CuylleF1:29-0.01Gabe PerreaultF0:29-0.19Oliver BjorkstrandF0:24-0.19
0.250.250Marcus PetterssonD1:59+0.00Sean DurziD1:38+0.00Will CuylleF1:17+0.00Eeli TolvanenF1:16+0.00Noah LabaF1:09+0.00Adam FoxD0:16+0.00Alberts SmitsD0:09+0.00Mika ZibanejadF0:08+0.00Vladislav GavrikovD2:16-0.01Tye KartyeF2:08-0.01Joseph VelenoF2:02-0.01Braden SchneiderD1:42-0.01
NYI
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Mitchell ChaffeeF14:54+0.60Matthew KesselD15:27+0.44Pierre EngvallF19:07+0.38Anthony DuclairF17:06+0.19Tony DeAngeloD21:11+0.08Kyle MacLeanF17:13-0.09Cole EisermanF15:07-0.10Daniil ProkhorovF14:16-0.12Kashawn AitchesonD22:27-0.13Liam FoudyF17:29-0.43Matthew HighmoreF9:41-0.48Emil HeinemanF16:38-0.56Alexander RomanovD20:24-0.77Isaiah GeorgeD17:32-0.81Alex JefferiesF10:58-0.84Matt LuffF11:43-0.85Daylan KueflerF15:03-1.58Ryan PulockD18:29-1.62
0.50.5111.51.50Mitchell ChaffeeF11:57+0.59Matthew KesselD13:30+0.51Pierre EngvallF15:59+0.18Anthony DuclairF14:49+0.18Tony DeAngeloD18:58+0.07Kashawn AitchesonD18:47-0.01Kyle MacLeanF15:26-0.04Cole EisermanF12:57-0.11Daniil ProkhorovF12:25-0.12Liam FoudyF15:26-0.16Matthew HighmoreF7:57-0.37Emil HeinemanF13:36-0.46Alexander RomanovD17:29-0.53Alex JefferiesF9:22-0.84Matt LuffF10:06-0.85Isaiah GeorgeD15:49-0.87Daylan KueflerF13:05-1.31Ryan PulockD16:07-1.38
0.250.250Pierre EngvallF2:21+0.01Anthony DuclairF2:17+0.01Cole EisermanF2:10+0.01Emil HeinemanF2:07+0.01Tony DeAngeloD1:54+0.01Kashawn AitchesonD1:59+0.00Daniil ProkhorovF1:51+0.00Matt LuffF1:37+0.00Alex JefferiesF1:36+0.00Mitchell ChaffeeF1:27+0.00Kyle MacLeanF0:14+0.00Alexander RomanovD0:13+0.00Matthew KesselD0:07+0.00Isaiah GeorgeD0:07+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Pierre EngvallF0:47+0.19Isaiah GeorgeD1:36+0.06Mitchell ChaffeeF1:30+0.01Tony DeAngeloD0:19+0.00Kyle MacLeanF1:33-0.05Matthew KesselD1:50-0.07Matthew HighmoreF1:44-0.11Emil HeinemanF0:55-0.11Kashawn AitchesonD1:41-0.13Alexander RomanovD2:42-0.24Ryan PulockD2:22-0.24Liam FoudyF2:03-0.27Daylan KueflerF1:58-0.27

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

NYR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
NYI
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
NYR won the chances NYI won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
VarlamovDuclairEngvallMacLeanHighmoreLuffJefferiesFoudyKueflerProkhorovChaffeeHeinemanEisermanDeAngeloAitchesonPulockRomanovKesselGeorgeGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3ShesterkinVelenoKartyeRempeMillerBjorkstrandDorofeyevZibanejadLafrenièrePerreaultTolvanenCuylleLabaPetterssonDurziSchneiderSmitsGavrikovFox
How to read this

Rows are NYR's skaters, columns NYI's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.