xJawn NHL expected goals

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WPG 2 – 5 COL

Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche

Final · Sep 25, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from WPG's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = WPG power play · PK = COL power play · Leading = WPG ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

WPG attacks◀ all strengths
COL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: WPG attacks the left net, COL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from WPG's side and mirrored for COL: “WPG PP” shows WPG's power-play attempts on the left and COL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
WPG COL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 4
Expected goals
3.17 3.67
xG%share of xG
46% 54%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 3
Shots on goal
26 32
Attempts
42 66
xG by period · whole game 1st1.4–1.02nd1.1–1.53rd0.7–1.3

The Avalanche beat the Jets 5–2 at home in a game the chances called about even, WPG 3.2 to COL 3.7 in expected goals. The Jets power play made 1.6 xG on 12 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative WPG − COL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5WPG AHEAD ▲COL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative WPG minus COL expected goals. Above zero WPG is ahead on chances, below zero COL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

WPG
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Neal PionkD21:13+1.13Viggo BjörckF12:15+0.98Isak RosénF11:15+0.88Nino NiederreiterF12:52+0.76Vladislav NamestnikovF15:08+0.51Adam LowryF13:43-0.10Cole PerfettiF19:50-0.13Morgan BarronF14:26-0.23Brad LambertF12:13-0.26Gabriel VilardiF14:29-0.31Dylan SambergD19:27-0.33Josh MorrisseyD21:25-0.42Alex IafalloF9:53-0.55Mark ScheifeleF22:30-0.59Tyrel BauerD10:30-0.60Kyle ConnorF22:27-0.60Dylan DeMeloD22:47-0.73Mario FerraroD19:25-1.29
COL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Gabriel LandeskogF16:05+1.17Martin NecasF17:27+1.08Sam MalinskiD19:01+0.95Nathan MacKinnonF16:39+0.78T.J. HughesF15:37+0.75Brett KulakD21:17+0.65Nazem KadriF16:02+0.64Wyatt AamodtD17:01+0.45Parker KellyF13:51+0.32Noah JuulsenD15:25+0.30Jaden SchwartzF12:49+0.24Fedor SvechkovF15:14+0.11Artturi LehkonenF13:48-0.29Taylor MakarF14:08-0.38Cale MakarD22:04-0.42Brock NelsonF13:51-0.58Gavin BrindleyF10:59-0.89Devon ToewsD20:51-1.07

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

WPG
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Mark ScheifeleKyle ConnorCole Perfetti17:58-0.10L2Adam LowryMorgan BarronBrad Lambert10:26-0.29L3Nino NiederreiterVladislav NamestnikovAlex Iafallo7:17-0.30L4Gabriel VilardiIsak RosénViggo Björck6:30-0.04DEFENCE PAIRSD1Dylan DeMeloJosh Morrissey13:42-0.33D2Dylan SambergNeal Pionk13:07+0.03D3Mario FerraroTyrel Bauer8:41-0.451ST2ND3RD01.251.25
COL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Gabriel LandeskogNathan MacKinnonMartin Necas13:58+0.85L2Parker KellyFedor SvechkovTaylor Makar10:21+0.40L3Nazem KadriJaden SchwartzT.J. Hughes6:41+0.12L4Brock NelsonArtturi LehkonenGavin Brindley4:18-0.25DEFENCE PAIRSD1Brett KulakSam Malinski18:21+0.64D2Devon ToewsCale Makar17:41-1.09D3Noah JuulsenWyatt Aamodt14:22+0.191ST2ND3RD022

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
WPG won the chances COL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
SkinnerScheifeleConnorPerfettiLowryBarronLambertNiederreiterNamestnikovIafalloVilardiRosénBjörckDeMeloMorrisseySambergPionkFerraroBauerBlackwoodLandeskogMacKinnonNecasKellySvechkovMakarKadriSchwartzHughesNelsonLehkonenBrindleyKulakMalinskiToewsMakarJuulsenAamodtGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are WPG's skaters, columns COL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
WPGNino Niederreiter 1st6:15 PP 0.56
WPGVladislav Namestnikov 2nd7:36 0.19
COLJaden Schwartz 2nd6:07 0.10
COLT.J. Hughes 2nd18:28 0.19
COLT.J. Hughes 2nd19:49 0.00
COLCale Makar 3rd15:25 0.17
COLT.J. Hughes 3rd19:38 EN 0.44