xJawn NHL expected goals

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UTA 4 – 5 VGK

Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights

Final / OT · Sep 24, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from UTA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = UTA power play · PK = VGK power play · Leading = UTA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

UTA attacks◀ all strengths
VGK attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: UTA attacks the left net, VGK the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from UTA's side and mirrored for VGK: “UTA PP” shows UTA's power-play attempts on the left and VGK's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
UTA VGK
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
4 5
Expected goals
1.70 3.30
xG%share of xG
34% 66%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 0
Shots on goal
21 35
Attempts
38 77
xG by period · whole game 1st1.2–1.32nd0.3–0.93rd0.2–1.0OT0.0–0.1

The Golden Knights beat the Mammoth 5–4 in overtime at home, and the chances agreed: VGK out-created UTA 3.3–1.7 in expected goals. UTA scored 4 on 1.7 expected.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative UTA − VGK xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2UTA AHEAD ▲VGK AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative UTA minus VGK expected goals. Above zero UTA is ahead on chances, below zero VGK is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

UTA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Yegor BorikovF14:19+0.29Caleb DesnoyersF12:26+0.15Joshua RoyF13:48+0.14Zac JonesD15:34-0.04Gabe SmithF13:27-0.04Tomas LavoieD15:57-0.15Tij IginlaF11:57-0.29Ben McCartneyF11:30-0.31Liam O'BrienF15:29-0.31Artem DudaD22:59-0.47Barrett HaytonF17:32-0.62Kevin StenlundF16:16-0.68Kailer YamamotoF16:41-0.70Dmitri SimashevD21:44-0.70Brandon TanevF14:20-0.73Jack McBainF18:36-0.77Nick DeSimoneD21:32-0.77Nate SchmidtD21:31-1.01
VGK
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Shea TheodoreD26:51+2.43Tomas HertlF18:32+1.65Mark StoneF20:06+1.53Jack EichelF21:10+1.29Mitch MarnerF19:27+1.22Brayden McNabbD19:12+1.19Victor OlofssonF14:02+0.51Trevor ConnellyF12:32+0.51William KarlssonF16:15+0.43Ivan BarbashevF13:57+0.18Brett HowdenF15:09+0.02Jeremy LauzonD16:13-0.08Noah HanifinD17:25-0.14Braeden BowmanF14:37-0.23Parker WotherspoonD16:11-0.39Jonas RondbjergF10:48-0.55Nic DowdF11:56-0.67Rasmus AnderssonD17:14-0.81

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

UTA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Kailer YamamotoBarrett HaytonJack McBain11:07-0.21L2Liam O'BrienKevin StenlundYegor Borikov10:35-0.34L3Joshua RoyTij IginlaCaleb Desnoyers8:44-0.23L4Brandon TanevBen McCartneyGabe Smith8:42-0.69DEFENCE PAIRSD1Nick DeSimoneArtem Duda15:05-0.64D2Nate SchmidtDmitri Simashev12:36-0.56D3Zac JonesTomas Lavoie7:15-0.021ST2ND3RDOT011
VGK
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1William KarlssonMitch MarnerBrett Howden8:32+0.35L2Mark StoneIvan BarbashevJack Eichel8:02+0.34L3Tomas HertlVictor OlofssonTrevor Connelly5:33+0.45L4Nic DowdJonas RondbjergBraeden Bowman4:45-0.09DEFENCE PAIRSD1Brayden McNabbShea Theodore17:07+1.20D2Noah HanifinJeremy Lauzon14:06+0.26D3Rasmus AnderssonParker Wotherspoon12:26-0.311ST2ND3RDOT01.51.5

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
UTA won the chances VGK won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
CossaYamamotoHaytonMcBainO'BrienStenlundBorikovRoyIginlaDesnoyersTanevMcCartneySmithDeSimoneDudaSchmidtSimashevJonesLavoieHillKarlssonMarnerHowdenStoneBarbashevEichelHertlOlofssonConnellyDowdRondbjergBowmanMcNabbTheodoreHanifinLauzonAnderssonWotherspoonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are UTA's skaters, columns VGK's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
UTAZac Jones 1st18:21 PP 0.01
UTALiam O'Brien 1st19:01 0.02
UTAArtem Duda 2nd14:06 0.04
UTATomas Lavoie 3rd18:29 0.07
VGKVictor Olofsson 1st9:38 0.07
VGKJeremy Lauzon 3rd5:19 0.03
VGKMark Stone 3rd13:06 PP 0.19
VGKTomas Hertl 3rd19:32 PP 0.06
VGKJack Eichel OT0:39 0.08