xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 24, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from PIT's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = PIT power play · PK = CBJ power play · Leading = PIT ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

PIT attacks◀ all strengths
CBJ attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: PIT attacks the left net, CBJ the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from PIT's side and mirrored for CBJ: “PIT PP” shows PIT's power-play attempts on the left and CBJ's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
PIT CBJ
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
0 3
Expected goals
2.00 2.62
xG%share of xG
43% 57%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 4
Shots on goal
15 16
Attempts
45 39
xG by period · whole game 1st0.6–0.52nd0.4–1.73rd1.0–0.4

The Blue Jackets beat the Penguins 4–0 at home in a game the chances called about even, PIT 2.0 to CBJ 2.6 in expected goals. At 5v5: PIT 1.5, CBJ 2.2.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative PIT − CBJ xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5PIT AHEAD ▲CBJ AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative PIT minus CBJ expected goals. Above zero PIT is ahead on chances, below zero CBJ is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CBJZach Werenski 1st11:48 0.02
CBJValeri Nichushkin 2nd14:42 0.24
CBJDanton Heinen 2nd19:45 0.60
CBJKirill Marchenko 3rd17:28 EN 0.50
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

PIT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Ilya SolovyovD19:44+0.81Filip HallanderF17:42+0.67Connor DewarF17:34+0.67Elmer SoderblomF17:47+0.63Jake LivanavageD21:54+0.56Rutger McGroartyF14:45+0.49Avery HayesF15:44+0.24David GustafssonF12:45+0.04Atley CalvertF12:29+0.04Ville KoivunenF15:31+0.03Tristan BrozF15:46-0.04Owen PickeringD17:53-0.31Harrison BrunickeD18:18-0.50Ryan GravesD20:47-0.85Caleb JonesD21:32-0.94Tanner HoweF12:57-1.20Bill ZonnonF12:39-1.30Mikhail IlyinF13:13-1.36
0.50.5111.51.50Filip HallanderF16:57+0.63Connor DewarF16:49+0.63Elmer SoderblomF17:21+0.63Ilya SolovyovD18:24+0.34Owen PickeringD17:07+0.09Jake LivanavageD20:09+0.09Rutger McGroartyF13:16+0.06David GustafssonF12:45+0.04Atley CalvertF12:29+0.04Ville KoivunenF13:45+0.01Tristan BrozF13:57-0.07Harrison BrunickeD17:18-0.10Avery HayesF14:44-0.19Ryan GravesD20:19-0.85Caleb JonesD20:51-0.94Tanner HoweF12:57-1.20Bill ZonnonF12:39-1.30Mikhail IlyinF13:13-1.36

No power play time for PIT in this game.

No penalty kill time for PIT in this game.

CBJ
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Erik GudbransonD18:32+1.48Colton WhiteD16:31+1.08Danton HeinenF13:47+0.40Charlie CoyleF15:42+0.40Jack WilliamsF14:35+0.40Sean MonahanF16:06+0.31Valeri NichushkinF16:16+0.31Luke TuchF12:29+0.07Miles WoodF10:44+0.06Oiva KeskinenF11:26+0.05Guillaume RichardD18:18-0.05Kirill MarchenkoF17:14-0.07Kent JohnsonF17:38-0.10Cole SillingerF16:41-0.14Dmitri VoronkovF15:17-0.18Zach WerenskiD24:04-0.28Corson CeulemansD18:39-0.46Charlie ElickD24:01-0.52
0.50.5111.51.50Erik GudbransonD17:38+1.08Colton WhiteD15:37+0.68Danton HeinenF13:47+0.40Charlie CoyleF15:10+0.40Jack WilliamsF14:35+0.40Kirill MarchenkoF15:35+0.40Kent JohnsonF16:08+0.33Cole SillingerF14:56+0.33Luke TuchF12:29+0.07Miles WoodF10:44+0.06Oiva KeskinenF11:26+0.05Zach WerenskiD23:08-0.01Guillaume RichardD17:44-0.05Charlie ElickD22:29-0.06Sean MonahanF15:23-0.09Valeri NichushkinF15:30-0.10Dmitri VoronkovF15:12-0.18Corson CeulemansD17:29-0.27

No power play time for CBJ in this game.

No penalty kill time for CBJ in this game.

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

PIT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

No power play time for PIT in this game.

No penalty kill time for PIT in this game.

CBJ
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

No power play time for CBJ in this game.

No penalty kill time for CBJ in this game.

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
PIT won the chances CBJ won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
TalbotMarchenkoJohnsonSillingerMonahanNichushkinVoronkovCoyleHeinenWilliamsWoodTuchKeskinenWerenskiElickCeulemansRichardGudbransonWhiteGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3MurashovHallanderDewarSoderblomBrozKoivunenMcGroartyIlyinHoweZonnonGustafssonHayesCalvertGravesJonesSolovyovLivanavagePickeringBrunicke
How to read this

Rows are PIT's skaters, columns CBJ's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.