xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · FLA skaters · TBL skaters · FLA lines · TBL lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →

FLA 5 – 3 TBL

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning

Final · Sep 24, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from FLA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = FLA power play · PK = TBL power play · Leading = FLA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

FLA attacks◀ all strengths
TBL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: FLA attacks the left net, TBL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from FLA's side and mirrored for TBL: “FLA PP” shows FLA's power-play attempts on the left and TBL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
FLA TBL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
4 3
Expected goals
1.83 3.93
xG%share of xG
32% 68%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 5
Shots on goal
24 28
Attempts
39 65
xG by period · whole game 1st0.6–0.42nd0.6–1.93rd0.7–1.7

The Panthers beat the Lightning 5–3 on the road despite being out-created 3.9–1.8 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. FLA scored 4 on 1.8 expected, before the empty-netter.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative FLA − TBL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2FLA AHEAD ▲TBL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative FLA minus TBL expected goals. Above zero FLA is ahead on chances, below zero TBL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

FLA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Nathan BastianF14:10+0.36Angus CrookshankF11:07+0.15Hunter St. MartinF12:57+0.12Kai SchwindtF10:33+0.07Bokondji ImamaF13:13-0.12John BeecherF16:49-0.16Marek AlscherD21:15-0.20Cole ReinhardtF13:50-0.26Cole SchwindtF13:46-0.27Uvis BalinskisD22:32-0.31Sam LaffertyF18:36-0.43Matvei ShuravinD15:20-0.70Mikulas HovorkaD16:13-0.79Sandis VilmanisF15:32-0.84Garnet HathawayF12:22-0.89Donovan SebrangoD21:11-1.00Alexander PetrovicD24:03-1.19Lars EllerF16:31-1.55
TBL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Brandon HagelF20:12+2.04Jake GuentzelF21:07+2.04John CarlsonD23:51+1.78Brayden PointF21:44+1.60Nikita KucherovF22:13+1.57Erik CernakD15:07+0.89Scott SabourinF11:13+0.75Jansen HarkinsF10:49+0.75Ryan McDonaghD16:20+0.65Jakob PelletierF9:48+0.55Anthony CirelliF14:30+0.19Benjamin RautiainenF13:22-0.05J.J. MoserD17:23-0.09Conor GeekieF15:13-0.10Sam O'ReillyF14:26-0.14Victor HedmanD19:37-0.43Emil LillebergD18:32-0.47Ilya MikheyevF13:59-0.51

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

FLA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Sam LaffertyBokondji ImamaJohn Beecher9:53+0.06L2Lars EllerGarnet HathawaySandis Vilmanis9:12-0.66L3Nathan BastianAngus CrookshankCole Schwindt9:08+0.24L4Cole ReinhardtKai SchwindtHunter St. Martin7:12+0.05DEFENCE PAIRSD1Alexander PetrovicUvis Balinskis20:22-0.16D2Donovan SebrangoMarek Alscher17:18+0.04D3Mikulas HovorkaMatvei Shuravin13:17-0.681ST2ND3RD01.251.25
TBL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Conor GeekieSam O'ReillyBenjamin Rautiainen10:53+0.06L2Nikita KucherovBrayden PointIlya Mikheyev10:39-0.47L3Jake GuentzelAnthony CirelliBrandon Hagel9:55+0.34L4Scott SabourinJansen HarkinsJakob Pelletier7:18+0.66DEFENCE PAIRSD1Victor HedmanEmil Lilleberg14:38-0.45D2John CarlsonJ.J. Moser13:15-0.22D3Ryan McDonaghErik Cernak12:42+0.661ST2ND3RD01.251.25

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
FLA won the chances TBL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
BlackGerasimyukLaffertyImamaBeecherEllerHathawayVilmanisBastianCrookshankSchwindtReinhardtSchwindtSt. MartinPetrovicBalinskisSebrangoAlscherHovorkaShuravinVasilevskiyGeekieO'ReillyRautiainenKucherovPointMikheyevGuentzelCirelliHagelSabourinHarkinsPelletierHedmanLillebergCarlsonMoserMcDonaghCernakGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are FLA's skaters, columns TBL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
FLABokondji Imama 1st19:44 0.11
FLAKai Schwindt 2nd2:29 0.07
FLAHunter St. Martin 3rd4:21 0.10
FLACole Reinhardt 3rd5:35 0.22
FLASandis Vilmanis 3rd19:36 EN 0.53
TBLJansen Harkins 2nd3:14 0.13
TBLConor Geekie 2nd13:09 0.25
TBLJansen Harkins 3rd5:29 0.46