xJawn NHL expected goals

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LAK 2 – 1 ANA

Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks

Final · Sep 23, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from LAK's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = LAK power play · PK = ANA power play · Leading = LAK ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

LAK attacks◀ all strengths
ANA attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: LAK attacks the left net, ANA the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from LAK's side and mirrored for ANA: “LAK PP” shows LAK's power-play attempts on the left and ANA's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
LAK ANA
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 1
Expected goals
1.84 2.62
xG%share of xG
41% 59%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 2
Shots on goal
19 25
Attempts
51 60
xG by period · whole game 1st0.7–1.12nd0.6–1.13rd0.6–0.5

The Kings beat the Ducks 2–1 on the road despite being out-created 2.6–1.8 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. The Ducks power play made 1.0 xG on 17 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative LAK − ANA xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1LAK AHEAD ▲ANA AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative LAK minus ANA expected goals. Above zero LAK is ahead on chances, below zero ANA is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
LAKAlex Laferriere 1st18:56 0.06
LAKJoel Armia 1st19:37 0.09
ANAEthan Procyszyn 1st8:41 0.51
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

LAK
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Andre LeeF14:29+0.42Drew DoughtyD20:19+0.42Cole GuttmanF9:03+0.26Alex TurcotteF18:01+0.17Alex LaferriereF18:36+0.16Lane PedersonF12:40+0.04Taylor WardF15:58-0.06Jared WrightF11:57-0.14Angus BoothD14:09-0.18Brian DumoulinD20:49-0.18Kirill KirsanovD21:20-0.31Aatu JamsenF8:39-0.36Kenny ConnorsF17:23-0.45Erik GustafssonD22:37-0.49Martin ChromiakF11:12-0.59Joel ArmiaF20:07-0.62Erik HaulaF19:18-0.79Scott PerunovichD13:17-0.82
0.50.5110Andre LeeF10:45+0.42Drew DoughtyD10:06+0.36Alex TurcotteF9:15+0.28Alex LaferriereF9:37+0.27Kirill KirsanovD15:38+0.25Cole GuttmanF8:25+0.23Taylor WardF10:16+0.09Jared WrightF9:27+0.07Lane PedersonF7:48+0.05Angus BoothD11:29+0.04Erik GustafssonD13:41+0.02Kenny ConnorsF9:35-0.14Brian DumoulinD13:36-0.16Aatu JamsenF8:09-0.18Joel ArmiaF13:45-0.30Erik HaulaF9:59-0.47Martin ChromiakF6:45-0.56Scott PerunovichD12:09-0.71
0.250.250Brian DumoulinD0:35+0.03Cole GuttmanF0:30+0.03Joel ArmiaF0:22+0.03Jared WrightF0:20+0.03Kirill KirsanovD0:16+0.03Erik GustafssonD3:57+0.00Kenny ConnorsF3:47+0.00Andre LeeF3:44+0.00Taylor WardF3:40+0.00Martin ChromiakF3:37+0.00Erik HaulaF4:29-0.01Alex LaferriereF4:25-0.01Drew DoughtyD4:24-0.01Alex TurcotteF4:23-0.01Lane PedersonF4:21-0.01
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Drew DoughtyD4:45+0.07Lane PedersonF0:31+0.00Cole GuttmanF0:07+0.00Brian DumoulinD4:44-0.02Alex LaferriereF3:19-0.10Alex TurcotteF3:16-0.10Taylor WardF0:25-0.15Scott PerunovichD0:03-0.18Erik HaulaF2:57-0.28Angus BoothD1:21-0.29Jared WrightF1:00-0.31Joel ArmiaF3:41-0.34Kenny ConnorsF1:46-0.39Erik GustafssonD3:10-0.51Kirill KirsanovD3:00-0.57
ANA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Tristan LuneauD28:08+1.29Tim WasheF18:43+1.01Sam ColangeloF13:48+0.84Travis MitchellD16:07+0.82Judd CaulfieldF18:23+0.79Jeff MalottF13:52+0.78Ethan ProcyszynF13:28+0.52Coulson PitreF10:06+0.32Yegor SidorovF18:12+0.27Pavel MintyukovD21:12+0.12Ryan PoehlingF18:31+0.10Jayden KurtzD16:19-0.05Frank VatranoF20:25-0.07Nikita NesterenkoF15:59-0.19Noah WarrenD13:30-0.50Konnor SmithD15:07-0.55Herman TraffF11:05-0.56Nathan GaucherF10:28-0.64
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Tristan LuneauD15:13+0.58Travis MitchellD12:20+0.51Tim WasheF9:22+0.44Sam ColangeloF9:10+0.43Ethan ProcyszynF8:34+0.42Judd CaulfieldF9:14+0.39Jeff MalottF8:58+0.38Coulson PitreF9:59+0.32Pavel MintyukovD13:36+0.11Jayden KurtzD11:45-0.02Yegor SidorovF10:32-0.04Ryan PoehlingF10:12-0.13Frank VatranoF10:43-0.32Nikita NesterenkoF8:31-0.40Noah WarrenD11:36-0.47Konnor SmithD11:54-0.53Herman TraffF8:58-0.59Nathan GaucherF9:48-0.64
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Tristan LuneauD5:45+0.64Tim WasheF3:59+0.55Judd CaulfieldF5:09+0.43Sam ColangeloF2:18+0.41Frank VatranoF5:35+0.33Ryan PoehlingF4:54+0.31Nikita NesterenkoF2:38+0.28Yegor SidorovF5:39+0.28Travis MitchellD0:20+0.19Pavel MintyukovD2:58+0.15Ethan ProcyszynF1:11+0.07Jayden KurtzD0:07+0.07Herman TraffF1:44+0.03Nathan GaucherF0:16+0.00Coulson PitreF0:07+0.00
0.250.250Tristan LuneauD3:20+0.14Tim WasheF2:22+0.09Travis MitchellD2:13+0.09Jeff MalottF2:48+0.06Nikita NesterenkoF2:41+0.00Ethan ProcyszynF1:57+0.00Nathan GaucherF0:24+0.00Herman TraffF0:23+0.00Konnor SmithD3:13-0.03Noah WarrenD1:54-0.03Judd CaulfieldF2:07-0.03Ryan PoehlingF1:22-0.07Pavel MintyukovD3:11-0.08Frank VatranoF2:58-0.08Jayden KurtzD3:23-0.13

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

LAK
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
ANA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
LAK won the chances ANA won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
DostalVatranoPoehlingSidorovColangeloMalottWasheCaulfieldPitreProcyszynNesterenkoGaucherTraffLuneauMitchellWarrenSmithMintyukovKurtzGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3ForsbergJamsenConnorsWrightTurcotteLeeLaferriereHaulaArmiaWardPedersonGuttmanChromiakGustafssonKirsanovPerunovichBoothDoughtyDumoulin
How to read this

Rows are LAK's skaters, columns ANA's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.