xJawn NHL expected goals

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VGK 2 1 SJS

Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks

Final / SO · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from VGK's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = VGK power play · PK = SJS power play · Leading = VGK ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

VGK attacks◀ all strengths
SJS attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: VGK attacks the left net, SJS the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from VGK's side and mirrored for SJS: “VGK PP” shows VGK's power-play attempts on the left and SJS's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
VGK SJS
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 1
Expected goals
1.71 3.55
xG%share of xG
33% 67%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 2
Shots on goal
23 29
Attempts
47 63
xG by period · whole game 1st0.60.72nd0.61.13rd0.60.7OT0.01.0

The Golden Knights beat the Sharks 2–1 in a shootout on the road despite being out-created 3.5–1.7 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. At 5v5: VGK 1.7, SJS 2.1.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative VGK − SJS xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2VGK AHEAD ▲SJS AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative VGK minus SJS expected goals. Above zero VGK is ahead on chances, below zero SJS is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

VGK
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Alexander HoltzF13:47+0.90Tanner LaczynskiF12:12+0.79Jonas RondbjergF14:44+0.19Ville HeinolaD20:00+0.02Mitchell McLainF8:28-0.02Jeremy DaviesD14:37-0.04Jackson HallumF12:59-0.06Dylan CoghlanD15:07-0.07Jakub DemekF10:58-0.13Alexander WeiermairF10:11-0.17Mathieu CatafordF12:14-0.19Joe FlemingF9:09-0.21Juho PiiparinenD16:38-0.28Antti TuomistoD19:12-0.34Adam GinningD17:21-0.70Matyas SapovalivF15:42-0.80Braeden BowmanF13:52-0.83Marc GatcombF13:59-0.84
SJS
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Ivar StenbergF16:32+0.91Dmitry OrlovD16:12+0.90Alexander WennbergF15:17+0.88Luca CagnoniD16:38+0.86Patrick GilesF10:07+0.38Michael MisaF13:53+0.36Collin GrafF12:13+0.34Nolan AllanD16:49+0.33Carson WetschF10:55+0.23Andre GasseauF12:09+0.19Jacob TroubaD16:28+0.04Igor ChernyshovF14:41-0.02Jimmy HuntingtonF10:04-0.10Tyler ToffoliF12:33-0.13Ethan CardwellF13:04-0.15Eric PohlkampD17:02-0.59Filip BystedtF14:14-0.63Phillip SinnD15:42-0.78

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

VGK
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Matyas SapovalivMarc GatcombBraeden Bowman9:24-0.53L2Tanner LaczynskiJonas RondbjergAlexander Holtz7:48+0.35L3Jackson HallumJakub DemekMathieu Cataford6:01+0.18L4Mitchell McLainJoe FlemingAlexander Weiermair5:03-0.26DEFENCE PAIRSD1Adam GinningJuho Piiparinen13:58-0.41D2Ville HeinolaAntti Tuomisto10:52+0.12D3Jeremy DaviesDylan Coghlan7:02+0.041ST2ND3RDOT00.750.75
SJS
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Alexander WennbergCollin GrafIvar Stenberg10:25+0.27L2Tyler ToffoliIgor ChernyshovMichael Misa8:33-0.19L3Patrick GilesAndre GasseauCarson Wetsch8:21+0.32L4Jimmy HuntingtonEthan CardwellFilip Bystedt8:14-0.08DEFENCE PAIRSD1Jacob TroubaNolan Allan15:31+0.08D2Eric PohlkampPhillip Sinn14:52-0.74D3Dmitry OrlovLuca Cagnoni13:44+0.731ST2ND3RDOT01.251.25

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater · hover a cell
VGK won the chances SJS won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more on together, dead even never on together
SapovalivGatcombBowmanLaczynskiRondbjergHoltzHallumDemekCatafordMcLainFlemingWeiermairGinningPiiparinenHeinolaTuomistoDaviesCoghlanWennbergGrafStenbergToffoliChernyshovMisaGilesGasseauWetschHuntingtonCardwellBystedtTroubaAllanPohlkampSinnOrlovCagnoniL1L2L3L4D1D2D3L1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are VGK's skaters, columns SJS's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open one means they never met at five-on-five.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not. Hover (or tap) any cell for the time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
VGKAlexander Holtz 3rd8:22 0.09
SJSMichael Misa 3rd4:18 PP 0.17