xJawn NHL expected goals

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VAN 1 – 3 CGY

Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames

Final · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from VAN's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = VAN power play · PK = CGY power play · Leading = VAN ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

VAN attacks◀ all strengths
CGY attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: VAN attacks the left net, CGY the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from VAN's side and mirrored for CGY: “VAN PP” shows VAN's power-play attempts on the left and CGY's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
VAN CGY
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 3
Expected goals
1.12 4.11
xG%share of xG
21% 79%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 2
Shots on goal
9 31
Attempts
23 81
xG by period · whole game 1st0.4–0.92nd0.4–2.43rd0.3–0.8

The Flames beat the Canucks 3–1 at home, and the chances agreed: CGY out-created VAN 4.1–1.1 in expected goals. The Flames power play made 0.9 xG on 14 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative VAN − CGY xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2+3−3VAN AHEAD ▲CGY AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative VAN minus CGY expected goals. Above zero VAN is ahead on chances, below zero CGY is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

VAN
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Trey Fix-WolanskyF11:53-0.14Aatu RätyF14:24-0.18Benjamin BerardF11:31-0.27Yaroslav BryzgalovF10:17-0.29Riley PattersonF13:57-0.39Ilya SafonovF11:08-0.42Arshdeep BainsF15:50-0.52Guillaume BriseboisD15:34-0.69Tom WillanderD17:31-0.70Brooks RogowskiF10:15-0.75Adam NovotnyF12:44-0.76Kirill KudryavtsevD15:51-0.78Matthew StienburgF13:32-0.84Cole ClaytonD14:59-0.96Braeden CootesF16:08-0.99Victor ManciniD19:41-1.09Jimmy SchuldtD19:17-1.22Ty MuellerF14:25-1.40
CGY
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Maxim TsyplakovF12:32+1.66Simon NemecD18:27+1.46Zayne ParekhD17:09+1.40Joel FarabeeF14:20+1.28Martin PospisilF10:56+1.24Adam KlapkaF11:01+1.14Kevin BahlD19:20+0.84Mikael BacklundF14:42+0.83Jake MiddletonD15:22+0.66Samuel HonzekF13:19+0.64Matt CoronatoF13:52+0.63Matvei GridinF12:51+0.55Connor ZaryF13:05+0.41Morgan FrostF13:33+0.38Yan KuznetsovD16:37+0.13Zach WhitecloudD17:03+0.10Ryan StromeF14:51+0.09Yegor SharangovichF14:09-0.20

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

VAN
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Trey Fix-WolanskyBraeden CootesAdam Novotny8:10+0.01L2Benjamin BerardRiley PattersonYaroslav Bryzgalov6:21-0.15L3Matthew StienburgAatu RätyArshdeep Bains5:35-0.03L4Ilya SafonovTy MuellerBrooks Rogowski5:32-0.38DEFENCE PAIRSD1Jimmy SchuldtVictor Mancini17:15-1.12D2Guillaume BriseboisTom Willander13:35-0.68D3Cole ClaytonKirill Kudryavtsev13:07-0.751ST2ND3RD01.251.25
CGY
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Morgan FrostMatt CoronatoMatvei Gridin11:12+0.42L2Ryan StromeYegor SharangovichConnor Zary10:10+0.21L3Mikael BacklundJoel FarabeeSamuel Honzek9:14+0.68L4Martin PospisilAdam KlapkaMaxim Tsyplakov7:47+1.00DEFENCE PAIRSD1Kevin BahlSimon Nemec14:55+1.03D2Zach WhitecloudYan Kuznetsov14:09+0.11D3Jake MiddletonZayne Parekh11:24+0.851ST2ND3RD01.51.5

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater · hover a cell
VAN won the chances CGY won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more on together, dead even never on together
Fix-WolanskyCootesNovotnyBerardPattersonBryzgalovStienburgRätyBainsSafonovMuellerRogowskiSchuldtManciniBriseboisWillanderClaytonKudryavtsevFrostCoronatoGridinStromeSharangovichZaryBacklundFarabeeHonzekPospisilKlapkaTsyplakovBahlNemecWhitecloudKuznetsovMiddletonParekhL1L2L3L4D1D2D3L1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are VAN's skaters, columns CGY's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open one means they never met at five-on-five.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not. Hover (or tap) any cell for the time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
VANArshdeep Bains 3rd6:22 0.23
CGYJoel Farabee 2nd15:00 PP 0.19
CGYMatt Coronato 2nd17:30 0.07
CGYSamuel Honzek 2nd18:58 0.36