xJawn NHL expected goals

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TBL 2 3 NSH

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

Final / OT · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from TBL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = TBL power play · PK = NSH power play · Leading = TBL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

TBL attacks◀ all strengths
NSH attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: TBL attacks the left net, NSH the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from TBL's side and mirrored for NSH: “TBL PP” shows TBL's power-play attempts on the left and NSH's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
TBL NSH
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 3
Expected goals
2.16 2.53
xG%share of xG
46% 54%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 0
Shots on goal
27 26
Attempts
47 55
xG by period · whole game 1st0.40.62nd1.10.83rd0.60.8OT0.00.3

The Predators beat the Lightning 3–2 in overtime at home in a game the chances called about even, TBL 2.2 to NSH 2.5 in expected goals. At 5v5: TBL 2.1, NSH 1.9.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative TBL − NSH xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1TBL AHEAD ▲NSH AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative TBL minus NSH expected goals. Above zero TBL is ahead on chances, below zero NSH is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

TBL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Pontus HolmbergF13:41+0.58Charle-Edouard D'AstousD22:17+0.48Emil LillebergD19:31+0.42Noah SteenF11:51+0.33Maxim GroshevD18:42+0.12Conor GeekieF15:18+0.07Jeffrey VielF13:59+0.06Jakob PelletierF13:49+0.05Sam O'ReillyF14:41+0.04Steven SantiniD17:15-0.02Zemgus GirgensonsF15:16-0.11Nick AbruzzeseF13:30-0.13Jansen HarkinsF13:43-0.13Gage GoncalvesF16:03-0.22Dylan DukeF16:17-0.25Benjamin RautiainenF14:54-0.36Tomas KralovicD19:02-0.50Michael CallahanD17:55-0.60
NSH
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Matthew WoodF17:54+0.82Filip ForsbergF17:28+0.56Nils HoglanderF13:54+0.45Justin BarronD19:20+0.42Jack AhcanD17:08+0.38David EdstromF12:18+0.34Roman JosiD23:05+0.25Ozzy WiesblattF14:11+0.18Chase BradleyF11:43+0.16Felix NilssonF12:32+0.07Brady MartinF11:43-0.04Reid SchaeferF14:13-0.24Tanner MolendykD16:33-0.30Ryan UfkoD20:55-0.35Brady SkjeiD18:31-0.37Steven StamkosF17:02-0.51Joakim KemellF13:41-0.54Ryan O'ReillyF17:09-0.83

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

TBL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Jakob PelletierGage GoncalvesConor Geekie11:47+0.01L2Jansen HarkinsNick AbruzzeseDylan Duke9:35-0.16L3Zemgus GirgensonsJeffrey VielPontus Holmberg9:25+0.57L4Sam O'ReillyNoah SteenBenjamin Rautiainen8:09+0.17DEFENCE PAIRSD1Charle-Edouard D'AstousEmil Lilleberg17:31+0.35D2Steven SantiniMaxim Groshev16:49-0.02D3Michael CallahanTomas Kralovic15:58-0.621ST2ND3RDOT01.251.25
NSH
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Filip ForsbergNils HoglanderMatthew Wood10:12+0.63L2Ozzy WiesblattChase BradleyDavid Edstrom8:35+0.15L3Steven StamkosRyan O'ReillyJoakim Kemell7:33-0.57L4Reid SchaeferFelix NilssonBrady Martin6:51-0.03DEFENCE PAIRSD1Jack AhcanJustin Barron15:33+0.47D2Roman JosiRyan Ufko11:00+0.24D3Brady SkjeiTanner Molendyk6:37+0.081ST2ND3RDOT011

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater · hover a cell
TBL won the chances NSH won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more on together, dead even never on together
PelletierGoncalvesGeekieHarkinsAbruzzeseDukeGirgensonsVielHolmbergO'ReillySteenRautiainenD'AstousLillebergSantiniGroshevCallahanKralovicForsbergHoglanderWoodWiesblattBradleyEdstromStamkosO'ReillyKemellSchaeferNilssonMartinAhcanBarronJosiUfkoSkjeiMolendykL1L2L3L4D1D2D3L1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are TBL's skaters, columns NSH's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open one means they never met at five-on-five.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not. Hover (or tap) any cell for the time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
TBLJeffrey Viel 2nd3:44 0.08
TBLJeffrey Viel 3rd4:54 0.11
NSHMatthew Wood 3rd13:30 0.05
NSHMatthew Wood 3rd17:41 0.12
NSHFelix Nilsson OT2:33 0.12