xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final / OT · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from TBL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = TBL power play · PK = NSH power play · Leading = TBL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

TBL attacks◀ all strengths
NSH attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: TBL attacks the left net, NSH the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from TBL's side and mirrored for NSH: “TBL PP” shows TBL's power-play attempts on the left and NSH's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
TBL NSH
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 3
Expected goals
2.19 2.35
xG%share of xG
48% 52%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 0
Shots on goal
27 26
Attempts
47 55
xG by period · whole game 1st0.4–0.62nd1.1–0.63rd0.6–0.8OT0.0–0.3

The Predators beat the Lightning 3–2 in overtime at home in a game the chances called about even, TBL 2.2 to NSH 2.4 in expected goals. At 5v5 it was TBL with the edge, 2.1–1.8.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative TBL − NSH xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1TBL AHEAD ▲NSH AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative TBL minus NSH expected goals. Above zero TBL is ahead on chances, below zero NSH is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
TBLJeff Viel 2nd3:44 0.08
TBLJeff Viel 3rd4:54 0.11
NSHMatthew Wood 3rd13:30 0.05
NSHMatthew Wood 3rd17:41 0.12
NSHFelix Nilsson OT2:33 0.12
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

TBL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Pontus HolmbergF14:36+0.57Charle-Edouard D'AstousD24:28+0.39Emil LillebergD21:48+0.33Noah SteenF11:51+0.32Maxim GroshevD19:14+0.31Sam O'ReillyF16:29+0.17Steven SantiniD17:46+0.17Jeff VielF14:29+0.12Jakob PelletierF13:49+0.07Jansen HarkinsF14:33-0.05Nick AbruzzeseF13:30-0.06Conor GeekieF16:19-0.07Dylan DukeF16:17-0.13Zemgus GirgensonsF16:43-0.25Benjamin RautiainenF14:54-0.29Gage GoncalvesF17:26-0.35Tomas KralovicD20:37-0.68Michael CallahanD19:23-0.77
0.50.5110Charle-Edouard D'AstousD18:27+0.73Emil LillebergD17:35+0.67Pontus HolmbergF13:15+0.57Maxim GroshevD17:38+0.32Noah SteenF11:14+0.28Steven SantiniD16:52+0.17Sam O'ReillyF12:23+0.15Zemgus GirgensonsF14:03+0.12Jeff VielF13:59+0.12Conor GeekieF13:56+0.09Jakob PelletierF12:56+0.07Gage GoncalvesF14:06+0.04Nick AbruzzeseF12:04-0.02Jansen HarkinsF11:57-0.02Dylan DukeF14:10-0.13Benjamin RautiainenF13:47-0.33Tomas KralovicD17:55-0.52Michael CallahanD17:03-0.61
0.250.250Charle-Edouard D'AstousD1:18+0.00Gage GoncalvesF1:18+0.00Conor GeekieF1:17+0.00Dylan DukeF1:10+0.00Sam O'ReillyF1:09+0.00Jakob PelletierF0:51+0.00Pontus HolmbergF0:50+0.00Benjamin RautiainenF0:43+0.00Nick AbruzzeseF0:42+0.00Emil LillebergD0:42+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Jansen HarkinsF1:52+0.02Sam O'ReillyF1:13+0.02Dylan DukeF0:17+0.00Conor GeekieF0:05+0.00Jakob PelletierF0:02+0.00Maxim GroshevD0:55-0.01Steven SantiniD0:54-0.01Pontus HolmbergF0:31-0.01Gage GoncalvesF0:39-0.23Charle-Edouard D'AstousD3:06-0.34Emil LillebergD3:06-0.34Zemgus GirgensonsF2:40-0.37
NSH
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Matthew WoodF19:54+0.74Filip ForsbergF19:55+0.61Nils HoglanderF14:37+0.49Justin BarronD19:58+0.43Jack AhcanD17:08+0.35Roman JosiD25:54+0.35David EdstromF12:18+0.26Felix NilssonF13:18+0.23Chase BradleyF11:43+0.15Brady MartinF11:43-0.04Ozzy WiesblattF14:06-0.05Reid SchaeferF14:13-0.24Ryan UfkoD21:44-0.30Tanner MolendykD17:10-0.31Joakim KemellF14:27-0.36Brady SkjeiD19:26-0.41Steven StamkosF19:29-0.54Ryan O'ReillyF19:09-0.79
0.50.5110Nils HoglanderF13:36+0.53Matthew WoodF14:14+0.47Justin BarronD17:21+0.39Jack AhcanD16:30+0.35Filip ForsbergF14:38+0.26David EdstromF11:45+0.26Chase BradleyF11:30+0.15Felix NilssonF12:23+0.07Brady MartinF11:28+0.01Ozzy WiesblattF13:16-0.05Roman JosiD19:32-0.16Reid SchaeferF13:25-0.24Tanner MolendykD15:09-0.27Brady SkjeiD16:47-0.37Ryan UfkoD20:11-0.50Joakim KemellF13:21-0.52Steven StamkosF14:21-0.93Ryan O'ReillyF13:53-1.14
0.250.250.50.50Steven StamkosF4:00+0.35Roman JosiD4:00+0.35Ryan O'ReillyF3:57+0.35Filip ForsbergF3:55+0.35Matthew WoodF3:20+0.22David EdstromF0:05+0.00Ozzy WiesblattF0:03+0.00
0.250.250Brady SkjeiD1:13+0.00Justin BarronD1:12+0.00Matthew WoodF0:58+0.00Roman JosiD0:51+0.00Reid SchaeferF0:48+0.00Ozzy WiesblattF0:47+0.00Tanner MolendykD0:46+0.00Ryan O'ReillyF0:28+0.00David EdstromF0:28+0.00Joakim KemellF0:16+0.00Chase BradleyF0:13+0.00

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

TBL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
NSH
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
TBL won the chances NSH won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
AnnunenForsbergHoglanderWoodWiesblattBradleyEdstromStamkosO'ReillyKemellSchaeferNilssonMartinAhcanBarronJosiUfkoSkjeiMolendykGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3HildebyPelletierGoncalvesGeekieGirgensonsVielHolmbergHarkinsAbruzzeseDukeO'ReillySteenRautiainenSantiniGroshevD'AstousLillebergCallahanKralovic
How to read this

Rows are TBL's skaters, columns NSH's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.