xJawn NHL expected goals

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NYI 4 3 NYR

New York Islanders at New York Rangers

Final · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from NYI's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = NYI power play · PK = NYR power play · Leading = NYI ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

NYI attacks◀ all strengths
NYR attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: NYI attacks the left net, NYR the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from NYI's side and mirrored for NYR: “NYI PP” shows NYI's power-play attempts on the left and NYR's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
NYI NYR
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
4 3
Expected goals
3.08 2.18
xG%share of xG
59% 41%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 1
Shots on goal
28 19
Attempts
52 45
xG by period · whole game 1st1.01.12nd1.30.63rd0.70.5

The Islanders beat the Rangers 4–3 on the road, and the chances agreed: NYI out-created NYR 3.1–2.2 in expected goals. The Rangers power play made 1.2 xG on 12 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative NYI − NYR xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5NYI AHEAD ▲NYR AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative NYI minus NYR expected goals. Above zero NYI is ahead on chances, below zero NYR is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

NYI
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Bo HorvatF16:34+0.94Brayden SchennF15:55+0.92Matias MaccelliF16:30+0.91Kyle PalmieriF16:14+0.86Matthew SchaeferD23:03+0.81Tony DeAngeloD16:01+0.80Kyle MacLeanF10:40+0.52Mitchell ChaffeeF8:39+0.52Isaiah GeorgeD14:42+0.47Casey CizikasF10:20+0.46Simon HolmstromF11:31+0.08Calum RitchieF12:20+0.01Adam PelechD14:15-0.17Cole EisermanF10:10-0.40Kashawn AitchesonD12:57-0.46Scott MayfieldD11:24-0.50Jean-Gabriel PageauF10:47-0.50Victor EklundF12:52-0.57
NYR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Mika ZibanejadF15:58+0.61Alexis LafrenièreF13:10+0.24Liam GreentreeF9:01+0.07Jaroslav ChmelarF8:21+0.06Gabe PerreaultF10:45+0.06Cole BeaudoinF12:38+0.04Alberts SmitsD12:59-0.03Sean DurziD18:48-0.10Eeli TolvanenF12:10-0.14Pavel DorofeyevF13:19-0.27Dylan RoobroeckF9:13-0.28Marcus PetterssonD18:56-0.32Vladislav GavrikovD18:36-0.38Taylor RaddyshF10:37-0.45Braden SchneiderD13:37-0.46J.T. MillerF15:02-0.48Adam FoxD16:28-0.55Oliver BjorkstrandF13:40-0.63

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

NYI
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Brayden SchennMatias MaccelliCalum Ritchie8:20+0.08L2Jean-Gabriel PageauCole EisermanVictor Eklund8:12-0.50L3Casey CizikasKyle MacLeanMitchell Chaffee7:53+0.52L4Kyle PalmieriBo HorvatSimon Holmstrom7:38+0.02DEFENCE PAIRSD1Tony DeAngeloIsaiah George11:28+0.40D2Adam PelechMatthew Schaefer11:27-0.17D3Scott MayfieldKashawn Aitcheson8:55-0.491ST2ND3RD01.51.5
NYR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1J.T. MillerOliver BjorkstrandPavel Dorofeyev9:21-0.34L2Mika ZibanejadAlexis LafrenièreGabe Perreault8:44+0.22L3Eeli TolvanenCole BeaudoinLiam Greentree7:08+0.29L4Taylor RaddyshJaroslav ChmelarDylan Roobroeck5:56+0.11DEFENCE PAIRSD1Marcus PetterssonSean Durzi15:52+0.04D2Vladislav GavrikovAdam Fox10:41-0.10D3Braden SchneiderAlberts Smits6:33-0.001ST2ND3RD01.51.5

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater · hover a cell
NYI won the chances NYR won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more on together, dead even never on together
SchennMaccelliRitchiePageauEisermanEklundCizikasMacLeanChaffeePalmieriHorvatHolmstromDeAngeloGeorgePelechSchaeferMayfieldAitchesonMillerBjorkstrandDorofeyevZibanejadLafrenièrePerreaultTolvanenBeaudoinGreentreeRaddyshChmelarRoobroeckPetterssonDurziGavrikovFoxSchneiderSmitsL1L2L3L4D1D2D3L1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are NYI's skaters, columns NYR's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open one means they never met at five-on-five.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not. Hover (or tap) any cell for the time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
NYIKyle MacLean 2nd11:36 0.34
NYIMatthew Schaefer 2nd17:47 PP 0.04
NYIMatias Maccelli 3rd4:02 PP 0.05
NYIMatias Maccelli 3rd9:29 PP 0.10
NYRCole Beaudoin 1st8:23 PP 0.68
NYRPavel Dorofeyev 2nd6:03 0.10
NYRTaylor Raddysh 2nd7:20 0.08