xJawn NHL expected goals

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DET 7 4 PIT

Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins

Final · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from DET's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = DET power play · PK = PIT power play · Leading = DET ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

DET attacks◀ all strengths
PIT attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: DET attacks the left net, PIT the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from DET's side and mirrored for PIT: “DET PP” shows DET's power-play attempts on the left and PIT's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
DET PIT
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
7 4
Expected goals
2.42 3.00
xG%share of xG
45% 55%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 1
Shots on goal
23 32
Attempts
47 61
xG by period · whole game 1st0.61.02nd0.71.23rd1.20.8

The Red Wings beat the Penguins 7–4 on the road in a game the chances called about even, DET 2.4 to PIT 3.0 in expected goals. DET scored 7 on 2.4 expected.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative DET − PIT xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5DET AHEAD ▲PIT AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative DET minus PIT expected goals. Above zero DET is ahead on chances, below zero PIT is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

DET
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Nate DanielsonF12:50+0.66Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF11:18+0.49Anton JohanssonD18:29+0.25Wilmer SkoogF11:03+0.15Mason AppletonF13:59+0.09Ondrej BecherF11:20-0.02Axel Sandin-PellikkaD14:55-0.03Sutter MuzzattiF9:32-0.06Noah Dower NilssonF7:15-0.07Viktor ArvidssonF15:31-0.10Theo RochetteF10:27-0.14Ben ChiarotD17:09-0.16Justin FaulkD21:38-0.21Jesse KiiskinenF6:11-0.22William WallinderD13:38-0.39Albert JohanssonD18:40-0.46Emmitt FinnieF20:38-0.57Marco KasperF18:37-0.70
PIT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Ilya SolovyovD15:25+0.81Egor ChinakhovF15:31+0.61Tommy NovakF15:22+0.49Mikhail IlyinF11:16+0.43Kaedan KorczakD19:11+0.43Liam RuckF10:26+0.40Nick RobertsonF16:07+0.38Markus RuckF7:33+0.28Sidney CrosbyF15:54+0.26Samuel GirardD20:47+0.26Evgeni MalkinF16:46+0.22Rutger McGroartyF11:25+0.19Bill ZonnonF10:53+0.04Declan CarlileD11:55-0.29Tomas GalvasD16:30-0.53Rickard RakellF17:19-0.53Finn HardingD13:50-0.62Atley CalvertF10:24-0.62

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

DET
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Viktor ArvidssonMarco KasperEmmitt Finnie13:05-0.19L2Wilmer SkoogSutter MuzzattiOndrej Becher8:10+0.04L3Mason AppletonNate DanielsonMichael Brandsegg-Nygård7:36+0.21L4Theo RochetteNoah Dower NilssonJesse Kiiskinen4:32-0.22DEFENCE PAIRSD1Justin FaulkAlbert Johansson16:46-0.53D2Ben ChiarotAnton Johansson15:24-0.02D3William WallinderAxel Sandin-Pellikka11:38-0.351ST2ND3RD011
PIT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Sidney CrosbyRickard RakellNick Robertson7:27+0.19L2Evgeni MalkinTommy NovakEgor Chinakhov7:16+0.27L3Rutger McGroartyAtley CalvertBill Zonnon6:41+0.03L4Mikhail IlyinLiam RuckMarkus Ruck5:33+0.18DEFENCE PAIRSD1Samuel GirardKaedan Korczak11:26+0.26D2Ilya SolovyovDeclan Carlile8:19+0.03D3Finn HardingTomas Galvas7:58-0.171ST2ND3RD00.750.75

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater · hover a cell
DET won the chances PIT won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more on together, dead even never on together
ArvidssonKasperFinnieSkoogMuzzattiBecherAppletonDanielsonBrandsegg-NygårdRochetteDower NilssonKiiskinenFaulkJohanssonChiarotJohanssonWallinderSandin-PellikkaCrosbyRakellRobertsonMalkinNovakChinakhovMcGroartyCalvertZonnonIlyinRuckRuckGirardKorczakSolovyovCarlileHardingGalvasL1L2L3L4D1D2D3L1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are DET's skaters, columns PIT's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open one means they never met at five-on-five.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not. Hover (or tap) any cell for the time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
DETMichael Brandsegg-Nygård 1st18:23 0.05
DETMason Appleton 2nd4:26 0.30
DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka 2nd4:57 0.11
DETMichael Brandsegg-Nygård 3rd5:37 PP 0.28
DETOndrej Becher 3rd9:24 0.12
DETWilmer Skoog 3rd12:39 0.12
DETJesse Kiiskinen 3rd13:46 0.04
PITNick Robertson 1st7:19 SH 0.19
PITRickard Rakell 2nd12:22 0.09
PITKaedan Korczak 3rd6:55 0.01
PITRutger McGroarty 3rd17:47 0.14