xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from DET's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = DET power play · PK = PIT power play · Leading = DET ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

DET attacks◀ all strengths
PIT attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: DET attacks the left net, PIT the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from DET's side and mirrored for PIT: “DET PP” shows DET's power-play attempts on the left and PIT's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
DET PIT
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
7 4
Expected goals
2.35 3.24
xG%share of xG
42% 58%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 2
Shots on goal
23 32
Attempts
46 61
xG by period · whole game 1st0.6–1.02nd0.6–1.33rd1.1–1.0

The Red Wings beat the Penguins 7–4 on the road despite being out-created 3.2–2.3 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. DET scored 7 on 2.3 expected.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative DET − PIT xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5DET AHEAD ▲PIT AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative DET minus PIT expected goals. Above zero DET is ahead on chances, below zero PIT is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
DETMichael Brandsegg-Nygård 1st18:23 0.05
DETMason Appleton 2nd4:26 0.30
DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka 2nd4:57 0.11
DETMichael Brandsegg-Nygård 3rd5:37 PP 0.28
DETOndrej Becher 3rd9:24 0.12
DETWilmer Skoog 3rd12:39 0.12
DETJesse Kiiskinen 3rd13:46 0.04
PITNick Robertson 1st7:19 SH 0.19
PITRickard Rakell 2nd12:22 0.09
PITKaedan Korczak 3rd6:55 0.01
PITRutger McGroarty 3rd17:47 0.14
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

DET
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Nate DanielsonF14:19+0.65Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF12:43+0.45Mason AppletonF15:31+0.08Wilmer SkoogF13:15+0.04Anton JohanssonD22:27+0.00Ondrej BecherF13:40-0.12Axel Sandin-PellikkaD16:20-0.13Viktor ArvidssonF17:15-0.13Sutter MuzzattiF11:46-0.17William WallinderD15:14-0.23Albert JohanssonD20:55-0.51Justin FaulkD23:37-0.52Noah Dower NilssonF8:59-0.52Theo RochetteF12:04-0.59Emmitt FinnieF22:35-0.62Ben ChiarotD20:44-0.63Jesse KiiskinenF8:03-0.66Marco KasperF20:33-0.78
0.50.5111.51.50Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF9:57+0.18Nate DanielsonF10:39+0.12Ondrej BecherF12:21+0.03Wilmer SkoogF11:49+0.03Mason AppletonF11:49-0.05William WallinderD11:53-0.15Sutter MuzzattiF11:31-0.17Axel Sandin-PellikkaD11:46-0.33Albert JohanssonD17:46-0.36Anton JohanssonD16:16-0.44Viktor ArvidssonF14:12-0.48Justin FaulkD17:20-0.57Jesse KiiskinenF7:11-0.66Emmitt FinnieF15:35-0.68Theo RochetteF7:34-0.76Noah Dower NilssonF6:56-0.76Marco KasperF15:15-0.82Ben ChiarotD16:45-0.82
0.250.250.50.50Anton JohanssonD1:55+0.25Nate DanielsonF1:54+0.25Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF1:52+0.25Theo RochetteF1:50+0.25Noah Dower NilssonF1:50+0.25Axel Sandin-PellikkaD2:36+0.24Emmitt FinnieF2:36+0.24Marco KasperF2:34+0.24Viktor ArvidssonF2:32+0.24Justin FaulkD2:31+0.24Ben ChiarotD0:15+0.00William WallinderD0:15+0.00Wilmer SkoogF0:15+0.00Sutter MuzzattiF0:15+0.00Ondrej BecherF0:15+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Wilmer SkoogF1:09+0.00Noah Dower NilssonF0:13-0.01Nate DanielsonF1:11-0.04Theo RochetteF2:40-0.08Anton JohanssonD3:30-0.14Ben ChiarotD3:02-0.14Albert JohanssonD2:22-0.15Axel Sandin-PellikkaD1:27-0.15Ondrej BecherF1:04-0.15Justin FaulkD3:03-0.19Mason AppletonF3:07-0.19William WallinderD2:35-0.19Marco KasperF2:44-0.20Emmitt FinnieF3:53-0.29
PIT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Ilya SolovyovD18:08+1.14Liam RuckF12:58+1.07Markus RuckF10:03+0.95Mikhail IlyinF14:06+0.89Egor ChinakhovF15:53+0.60Kaedan KorczakD23:05+0.53Samuel GirardD21:45+0.48Tommy NovakF15:41+0.46Rutger McGroartyF13:34+0.36Nick RobertsonF18:07+0.35Sidney CrosbyF17:32+0.29Evgeni MalkinF17:33+0.21Bill ZonnonF13:38-0.01Finn HardingD17:23-0.06Declan CarlileD12:44-0.25Rickard RakellF19:17-0.47Tomas GalvasD19:25-0.56Atley CalvertF12:27-0.66
0.50.5110Ilya SolovyovD14:43+1.07Markus RuckF10:03+0.95Samuel GirardD15:04+0.89Liam RuckF9:20+0.85Kaedan KorczakD19:18+0.69Mikhail IlyinF10:25+0.66Tommy NovakF10:19+0.39Finn HardingD15:43+0.38Egor ChinakhovF10:11+0.35Rutger McGroartyF11:15+0.29Nick RobertsonF12:25+0.28Rickard RakellF12:03+0.15Declan CarlileD10:43+0.12Evgeni MalkinF12:51+0.07Sidney CrosbyF13:30+0.06Bill ZonnonF13:24-0.01Atley CalvertF10:00-0.02Tomas GalvasD15:18-0.47
0.250.250Samuel GirardD4:28+0.25Egor ChinakhovF4:13+0.25Rickard RakellF4:12+0.25Evgeni MalkinF4:11+0.25Sidney CrosbyF4:02+0.24Mikhail IlyinF3:41+0.24Liam RuckF3:38+0.22Nick RobertsonF3:37+0.22Tommy NovakF3:34+0.22Tomas GalvasD3:32+0.22Rutger McGroartyF0:15+0.00Bill ZonnonF0:14+0.00Finn HardingD0:11+0.00Atley CalvertF0:08+0.00Ilya SolovyovD0:04+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Nick RobertsonF1:30+0.16Rutger McGroartyF1:53+0.09Ilya SolovyovD2:27+0.09Egor ChinakhovF0:46+0.00Tommy NovakF1:17-0.04Declan CarlileD0:32-0.04Kaedan KorczakD3:16-0.04Finn HardingD1:29-0.44Samuel GirardD1:42-0.54Rickard RakellF1:33-0.54Atley CalvertF2:19-0.64

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

DET
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
PIT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
DET won the chances PIT won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
SilovsCrosbyRakellRobertsonMcGroartyCalvertZonnonIlyinRuckRuckMalkinNovakChinakhovGirardKorczakHardingGalvasSolovyovCarlileGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GibsonAugustineArvidssonKasperFinnieSkoogMuzzattiBecherAppletonDanielsonBrandsegg-NygårdRochetteDower NilssonKiiskinenFaulkJohanssonChiarotJohanssonWallinderSandin-Pellikka
How to read this

Rows are DET's skaters, columns PIT's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.