xJawn NHL expected goals

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CBJ 1 5 BUF

Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres

Final · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CBJ's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CBJ power play · PK = BUF power play · Leading = CBJ ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CBJ attacks◀ all strengths
BUF attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CBJ attacks the left net, BUF the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CBJ's side and mirrored for BUF: “CBJ PP” shows CBJ's power-play attempts on the left and BUF's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
CBJ BUF
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 5
Expected goals
1.37 4.66
xG%share of xG
23% 77%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 5
Shots on goal
25 35
Attempts
48 67
xG by period · whole game 1st0.21.62nd0.72.63rd0.50.5

The Sabres beat the Blue Jackets 5–1 at home, and the chances agreed: BUF out-created CBJ 4.7–1.4 in expected goals. The Sabres power play made 0.9 xG on 7 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative CBJ − BUF xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2+3−3CBJ AHEAD ▲BUF AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CBJ minus BUF expected goals. Above zero CBJ is ahead on chances, below zero BUF is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

CBJ
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Mikael PyyhtiaF4:15+0.02Dmitri VoronkovF11:41-0.02Jack WilliamsF13:01-0.26Jordan DumaisF11:16-0.34Luke TuchF13:52-0.42Josh EernisseF9:20-0.47Charlie ElickD14:41-0.69Jake ChristiansenD21:16-0.83Carson SoucyD12:37-0.87Ryan LombergF11:22-0.95James MalatestaF8:39-0.99Oiva KeskinenF13:12-0.99Luca PinelliF13:24-1.00Luca MarrelliD11:29-1.04Miles WoodF10:48-1.25Owen SillingerF12:50-1.67Boston BuckbergerD15:44-1.68Corson CeulemansD14:31-1.78
BUF
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Owen PowerD18:13+2.31Tage ThompsonF13:13+2.22Josh DoanF10:55+1.78Olen ZellwegerD13:37+1.70Jack QuinnF14:27+1.56Zach BensonF13:07+1.40Peyton KrebsF9:29+1.14Conor TimminsD15:21+0.82Rasmus DahlinD17:45+0.74Ryan McLeodF12:29+0.74Noah OstlundF12:26+0.67Josh NorrisF11:32+0.65Konsta HeleniusF10:31+0.45Beck MalenstynF6:35+0.18Jiri KulichF8:36+0.15Louis CrevierD14:25+0.12Mattias SamuelssonD9:24+0.05Sam CarrickF8:32-0.03

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

CBJ
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Luke TuchJames MalatestaJosh Eernisse3:48-0.20L2Miles WoodRyan LombergOwen Sillinger3:37-0.78L3Dmitri VoronkovLuca PinelliJack Williams2:10-0.02SPAREOiva Keskinen13:12-0.99SPAREJordan Dumais11:16-0.34SPAREMikael Pyyhtia4:15+0.02DEFENCE PAIRSD1Jake ChristiansenCharlie Elick13:07-0.58D2Corson CeulemansBoston Buckberger9:18-1.13D3Carson SoucyLuca Marrelli7:09-0.411ST2ND3RD01.51.5
BUF
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Josh NorrisRyan McLeodKonsta Helenius8:01+0.54L2Tage ThompsonPeyton KrebsJosh Doan7:00+0.92L3Jack QuinnNoah OstlundZach Benson5:29+0.65L4Sam CarrickBeck MalenstynJiri Kulich5:03+0.06DEFENCE PAIRSD1Owen PowerOlen Zellweger9:33+1.56D2Conor TimminsLouis Crevier8:17+0.13D3Mattias SamuelssonRasmus Dahlin7:25+0.031ST2ND3RD01.751.75

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater · hover a cell
CBJ won the chances BUF won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more on together, dead even never on together
TuchMalatestaEernisseWoodLombergSillingerVoronkovPinelliWilliamsKeskinenDumaisPyyhtiaChristiansenElickCeulemansBuckbergerSoucyMarrelliNorrisMcLeodHeleniusThompsonKrebsDoanQuinnOstlundBensonCarrickMalenstynKulichPowerZellwegerTimminsCrevierSamuelssonDahlinL1L2L3FD1D2D3L1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are CBJ's skaters, columns BUF's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open one means they never met at five-on-five.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not. Hover (or tap) any cell for the time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CBJCorson Ceulemans 3rd16:19 0.03
BUFJosh Norris 2nd10:12 0.10
BUFNoah Ostlund 2nd11:54 0.30
BUFNoah Ostlund 2nd12:22 0.19
BUFConor Timmins 3rd3:53 0.17
BUFTage Thompson 3rd14:32 0.05