xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final / SO · Sep 21, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from DET's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = DET power play · PK = CBJ power play · Leading = DET ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

DET attacks◀ all strengths
CBJ attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: DET attacks the left net, CBJ the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from DET's side and mirrored for CBJ: “DET PP” shows DET's power-play attempts on the left and CBJ's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
DET CBJ
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
0 0
Expected goals
1.72 2.40
xG%share of xG
42% 58%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 1
Shots on goal
18 25
Attempts
43 55
xG by period · whole game 1st0.9–0.22nd0.7–0.73rd0.1–0.8OT0.0–0.7

The Blue Jackets beat the Red Wings 1–0 in a shootout at home in a game the chances called about even, DET 1.7 to CBJ 2.4 in expected goals. At 5v5 it was DET with the edge, 1.3–0.9.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative DET − CBJ xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1DET AHEAD ▲CBJ AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative DET minus CBJ expected goals. Above zero DET is ahead on chances, below zero CBJ is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

DET
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Michael RasmussenF18:46+0.53Jacob Bernard-DockerD20:26+0.35Nate DanielsonF17:27+0.31Dominik ShineF11:25+0.28Jacob BrysonD18:55+0.24John LeonardF14:13+0.12Keegan KolesarF16:45+0.06Dylan JamesF12:34+0.04Axel Sandin-PellikkaD22:41-0.04Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF14:25-0.08J.T. CompherF20:57-0.09Kienan DraperF12:22-0.22Carter BearF15:17-0.24Shai BuiumD16:50-0.24Anton JohanssonD20:31-0.43Carter MazurF14:27-0.54Sheldon DriesF14:58-0.76William WallinderD22:01-0.87
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Michael RasmussenF12:45+0.56J.T. CompherF14:23+0.39Jacob BrysonD16:31+0.37Jacob Bernard-DockerD16:30+0.36Keegan KolesarF13:40+0.32Axel Sandin-PellikkaD14:04+0.27Nate DanielsonF11:23+0.26William WallinderD14:53+0.25Dominik ShineF9:46+0.16Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF9:53-0.04John LeonardF10:34-0.04Kienan DraperF8:40-0.05Carter MazurF8:59-0.05Carter BearF12:41-0.07Dylan JamesF10:51-0.07Sheldon DriesF10:28-0.16Shai BuiumD13:44-0.23Anton JohanssonD13:50-0.24
0.250.250.50.50Axel Sandin-PellikkaD3:06+0.28John LeonardF2:44+0.28Michael RasmussenF2:49+0.17Nate DanielsonF2:28+0.17Dylan JamesF0:46+0.11Kienan DraperF0:45+0.11Dominik ShineF0:38+0.11Jacob Bernard-DockerD0:36+0.11Jacob BrysonD0:10+0.00Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF2:54-0.03Anton JohanssonD2:52-0.03Sheldon DriesF2:29-0.03Carter MazurF2:22-0.03Carter BearF2:02-0.08J.T. CompherF2:36-0.14
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Shai BuiumD2:51+0.00Dominik ShineF1:01+0.00Dylan JamesF0:13+0.00Carter BearF0:08+0.00Carter MazurF1:05-0.03Nate DanielsonF2:03-0.10Jacob Bernard-DockerD3:19-0.13Jacob BrysonD2:10-0.13Sheldon DriesF1:18-0.15Anton JohanssonD2:54-0.16Michael RasmussenF2:27-0.20Keegan KolesarF3:05-0.27Kienan DraperF2:57-0.28J.T. CompherF3:13-0.34Axel Sandin-PellikkaD3:19-0.48William WallinderD4:33-0.65
CBJ
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Denton MateychukD28:56+1.02Mikael PyyhtiaF18:23+0.91Ivan ProvorovD30:16+0.88Jack WilliamsF17:47+0.64Owen SillingerF18:17+0.54Conor GarlandF20:27+0.30Josh EernisseF13:25+0.24Luca PinelliF14:58+0.13Boston BuckbergerD19:26-0.06James MalatestaF11:59-0.06Luke TuchF13:08-0.06Max McCueF11:39-0.09Owen GriffinF10:37-0.09Oiva KeskinenF15:56-0.16Colton WhiteD17:48-0.18Mathieu OlivierF18:17-0.25Dante FabbroD6:58-0.43Guillaume RichardD20:15-0.62
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Denton MateychukD17:19+0.30Josh EernisseF12:11+0.22Owen SillingerF15:43+0.06James MalatestaF11:36-0.06Luca PinelliF10:22-0.06Ivan ProvorovD17:34-0.06Max McCueF11:39-0.09Owen GriffinF10:37-0.09Jack WilliamsF10:42-0.10Boston BuckbergerD15:47-0.14Mikael PyyhtiaF10:38-0.14Luke TuchF9:56-0.15Mathieu OlivierF9:38-0.15Oiva KeskinenF9:09-0.21Colton WhiteD16:16-0.26Dante FabbroD4:53-0.31Conor GarlandF11:53-0.32Guillaume RichardD17:42-0.34
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Ivan ProvorovD6:28+0.75Conor GarlandF5:06+0.73Denton MateychukD5:29+0.58Jack WilliamsF4:42+0.58Mikael PyyhtiaF4:28+0.56Luca PinelliF4:36+0.19Oiva KeskinenF4:36+0.19Mathieu OlivierF4:00+0.05Boston BuckbergerD3:04+0.03Luke TuchF2:29+0.03Dante FabbroD1:01+0.00Josh EernisseF0:04+0.00Owen SillingerF0:03+0.00Guillaume RichardD0:02+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Jack WilliamsF1:16+0.08Colton WhiteD1:23+0.08Luke TuchF0:43+0.06Boston BuckbergerD0:35+0.06Mikael PyyhtiaF1:40+0.03Denton MateychukD3:10+0.03James MalatestaF0:23+0.00Owen SillingerF1:01+0.00Josh EernisseF0:37-0.00Dante FabbroD1:04-0.11Oiva KeskinenF0:49-0.11Mathieu OlivierF2:33-0.12Conor GarlandF2:13-0.19Guillaume RichardD2:31-0.28Ivan ProvorovD3:19-0.28

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

DET
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
CBJ
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
DET won the chances CBJ won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
GreavesCopleyGarlandPyyhtiaWilliamsMalatestaSillingerEernisseOlivierPinelliKeskinenTuchMcCueGriffinProvorovMateychukWhiteRichardFabbroBuckbergerGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3TarasovPostavaCompherKolesarRasmussenDriesLeonardBearMazurDanielsonBrandsegg-NygårdShineDraperJamesBrysonBernard-DockerWallinderSandin-PellikkaBuiumJohansson
How to read this

Rows are DET's skaters, columns CBJ's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.