xJawn NHL expected goals

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BUF 1 – 4 PIT

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

Final · Sep 21, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from BUF's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = BUF power play · PK = PIT power play · Leading = BUF ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

BUF attacks◀ all strengths
PIT attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: BUF attacks the left net, PIT the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from BUF's side and mirrored for PIT: “BUF PP” shows BUF's power-play attempts on the left and PIT's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
BUF PIT
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 3
Expected goals
1.59 2.49
xG%share of xG
39% 61%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
0 1
Shots on goal
24 27
Attempts
52 59
xG by period · whole game 1st0.3–0.42nd0.7–1.23rd0.5–0.9

The Penguins beat the Sabres 4–1 at home, and the chances agreed: PIT out-created BUF 2.5–1.6 in expected goals. At 5v5: BUF 1.0, PIT 2.0.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative BUF − PIT xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1BUF AHEAD ▲PIT AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative BUF minus PIT expected goals. Above zero BUF is ahead on chances, below zero PIT is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
BUFJake Richard 2nd18:32 PP 0.05
PITConnor Dewar 1st10:27 0.01
PITBryan Rust 2nd12:16 PP 0.14
PITAvery Hayes 2nd19:58 0.03
PITElmer Soderblom 3rd18:13 EN 0.31
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

BUF
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Ryan JohnsonD18:42+0.35Thomas BordeleauF16:57+0.31Jake RichardF16:02+0.22Radim MrtkaD20:28+0.22Trevor KuntarF14:52+0.06Aidan McDonoughF11:51-0.00Jason PolinF15:37-0.03Jiri KulichF19:39-0.06Riley Fiddler-SchultzF14:19-0.16Justin DanforthF17:32-0.16Conor ShearyF5:35-0.17Liam ValenteF14:54-0.25Tyson KozakF17:01-0.46Zach MetsaD21:55-0.47Matthew PecaF18:01-0.52Jack RathboneD16:22-0.61Vsevolod KomarovD17:33-0.90Dennis GilbertD20:02-1.09
0.50.5110Ryan JohnsonD17:06+0.68Radim MrtkaD18:16+0.30Riley Fiddler-SchultzF12:37+0.11Trevor KuntarF14:51+0.06Aidan McDonoughF10:32-0.03Conor ShearyF4:43-0.17Jason PolinF13:28-0.19Tyson KozakF14:57-0.22Jake RichardF12:11-0.25Liam ValenteF14:27-0.25Thomas BordeleauF12:37-0.27Justin DanforthF13:12-0.34Jiri KulichF14:29-0.57Matthew PecaF14:01-0.68Zach MetsaD16:35-0.69Vsevolod KomarovD16:41-0.72Jack RathboneD14:27-0.72Dennis GilbertD19:10-0.90
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Thomas BordeleauF3:12+0.58Jiri KulichF3:06+0.53Zach MetsaD2:47+0.47Jake RichardF2:43+0.47Justin DanforthF2:45+0.42Matthew PecaF1:44+0.16Jason PolinF1:31+0.16Jack RathboneD1:38+0.11Aidan McDonoughF1:12+0.05Liam ValenteF0:27+0.00Radim MrtkaD0:04+0.00Riley Fiddler-SchultzF0:02+0.00Trevor KuntarF0:01+0.00Tyson KozakF0:01+0.00Conor ShearyF0:52-0.00
0.250.250.50.50Matthew PecaF1:08+0.00Jack RathboneD0:17+0.00Jiri KulichF0:49-0.02Radim MrtkaD2:01-0.08Dennis GilbertD0:52-0.18Vsevolod KomarovD0:52-0.18Zach MetsaD1:25-0.24Justin DanforthF1:05-0.24Tyson KozakF2:03-0.24Riley Fiddler-SchultzF1:33-0.27Ryan JohnsonD1:29-0.32
PIT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Hendrix LapierreF16:33+0.72Bryan RustF16:41+0.65Andrei KuzmenkoF19:02+0.65Justin BrazeauF14:29+0.64Chase PietilaD21:56+0.59Tristan BrozF17:48+0.59Kris LetangD20:49+0.49Filip HallanderF14:14+0.38Ryan GravesD22:33+0.36Trevor van RiemsdykD17:21+0.33Connor DewarF14:41+0.24Ben KindelF6:13+0.23Avery HayesF14:50+0.10Tanner HoweF12:28+0.06Elmer SoderblomF15:31-0.14Harrison BrunickeD16:30-0.22Owen PickeringD17:27-0.24David GustafssonF16:36-0.40
0.50.5110Chase PietilaD18:37+0.92Ryan GravesD19:50+0.68Justin BrazeauF14:14+0.64Hendrix LapierreF13:35+0.47Bryan RustF13:43+0.40Trevor van RiemsdykD16:15+0.39Filip HallanderF11:27+0.37Andrei KuzmenkoF16:51+0.35Tristan BrozF15:17+0.27Kris LetangD17:16+0.25Ben KindelF5:31+0.23Connor DewarF11:12+0.22Elmer SoderblomF11:05+0.09Tanner HoweF11:49+0.06Owen PickeringD15:38-0.06David GustafssonF14:15-0.06Avery HayesF13:31-0.11Harrison BrunickeD14:14-0.23
0.250.250.50.50Tristan BrozF2:19+0.32Kris LetangD2:19+0.30Hendrix LapierreF2:19+0.30Bryan RustF2:18+0.30Andrei KuzmenkoF2:11+0.30Avery HayesF1:12+0.21Elmer SoderblomF1:17+0.18Filip HallanderF1:09+0.18Harrison BrunickeD1:09+0.18Connor DewarF0:52+0.18Justin BrazeauF0:15+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Ben KindelF0:42+0.00Tristan BrozF0:05+0.00Bryan RustF0:04-0.05Hendrix LapierreF0:30-0.05Kris LetangD1:08-0.06Trevor van RiemsdykD1:06-0.06Connor DewarF1:38-0.17Owen PickeringD1:49-0.17Filip HallanderF1:38-0.17Harrison BrunickeD1:07-0.17Chase PietilaD2:10-0.35Ryan GravesD1:28-0.35David GustafssonF2:14-0.36Elmer SoderblomF2:01-0.41

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

BUF
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
PIT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
BUF won the chances PIT won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
MurashovBlomqvistRustBrozKuzmenkoBrazeauHallanderLapierreGustafssonHayesHoweDewarSoderblomKindelGravesPietilaLetangvan RiemsdykPickeringBrunickeGL1L2L3FD1D2D3GL1L2L3FD1D2D3LyonEllisKuntarKozakPolinDanforthBordeleauKulichPecaRichardValenteFiddler-SchultzMcDonoughShearyJohnsonMrtkaGilbertMetsaRathboneKomarov
How to read this

Rows are BUF's skaters, columns PIT's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.