xJawn NHL expected goals

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BUF 1 4 PIT

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

Final · Sep 21, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from BUF's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = BUF power play · PK = PIT power play · Leading = BUF ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

BUF attacks◀ all strengths
PIT attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: BUF attacks the left net, PIT the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from BUF's side and mirrored for PIT: “BUF PP” shows BUF's power-play attempts on the left and PIT's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
BUF PIT
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 3
Expected goals
1.59 2.47
xG%share of xG
39% 61%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
0 1
Shots on goal
24 27
Attempts
52 59
xG by period · whole game 1st0.30.42nd0.71.23rd0.50.9

The Penguins beat the Sabres 4–1 at home, and the chances agreed: PIT out-created BUF 2.5–1.6 in expected goals. At 5v5: BUF 1.0, PIT 2.0.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative BUF − PIT xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1BUF AHEAD ▲PIT AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative BUF minus PIT expected goals. Above zero BUF is ahead on chances, below zero PIT is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

BUF
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Ryan JohnsonD17:48+0.35Thomas BordeleauF14:54+0.28Radim MrtkaD18:36+0.24Jake RichardF14:54+0.18Trevor KuntarF13:03+0.10Aidan McDonoughF9:49-0.00Jason PolinF13:18-0.01Jiri KulichF17:46-0.09Riley Fiddler-SchultzF11:57-0.14Justin DanforthF15:46-0.14Conor ShearyF5:35-0.17Liam ValenteF12:48-0.23Tyson KozakF15:19-0.42Zach MetsaD19:34-0.48Matthew PecaF16:45-0.57Jack RathboneD14:07-0.63Vsevolod KomarovD14:16-0.92Dennis GilbertD17:52-1.02
PIT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Hendrix LapierreF13:45+0.68Bryan RustF15:05+0.66Justin BrazeauF13:17+0.64Chase PietilaD18:52+0.60Andrei KuzmenkoF16:48+0.58Tristan BrozF15:50+0.52Kris LetangD19:29+0.48Filip HallanderF12:48+0.38Ryan GravesD19:28+0.34Trevor van RiemsdykD16:02+0.34Connor DewarF12:16+0.27Ben KindelF6:13+0.23Avery HayesF14:06+0.08Tanner HoweF11:37+0.05Elmer SoderblomF13:08-0.10Harrison BrunickeD14:43-0.25Owen PickeringD15:48-0.27David GustafssonF15:55-0.41

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

BUF
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Trevor KuntarTyson KozakJason Polin8:23+0.05L2Justin DanforthThomas BordeleauJiri Kulich7:18+0.23L3Matthew PecaJake RichardLiam Valente5:01-0.08SPARERiley Fiddler-Schultz11:57-0.14SPAREAidan McDonough9:49-0.00SPAREConor Sheary5:35-0.17DEFENCE PAIRSD1Ryan JohnsonRadim Mrtka15:47+0.59D2Dennis GilbertZach Metsa12:52-0.40D3Jack RathboneVsevolod Komarov10:02-0.391ST2ND3RD00.750.75
PIT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Bryan RustTristan BrozAndrei Kuzmenko9:57+0.34L2Justin BrazeauFilip HallanderHendrix Lapierre7:37+0.19L3David GustafssonAvery HayesTanner Howe6:40-0.12SPAREElmer Soderblom13:08-0.10SPAREConnor Dewar12:16+0.27SPAREBen Kindel6:13+0.23DEFENCE PAIRSD1Ryan GravesChase Pietila17:03+0.33D2Kris LetangTrevor van Riemsdyk15:03+0.30D3Owen PickeringHarrison Brunicke12:03-0.441ST2ND3RD011

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
BUFJake Richard 2nd18:32 PP 0.05
PITConnor Dewar 1st10:27 0.01
PITBryan Rust 2nd12:16 PP 0.14
PITAvery Hayes 2nd19:58 0.03
PITElmer Soderblom 3rd18:13 EN 0.31