xJawn NHL expected goals

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COL 1 3 WPG

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

Final · Sep 21, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from COL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = COL power play · PK = WPG power play · Leading = COL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

COL attacks◀ all strengths
WPG attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: COL attacks the left net, WPG the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from COL's side and mirrored for WPG: “COL PP” shows COL's power-play attempts on the left and WPG's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
COL WPG
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 3
Expected goals
2.81 3.36
xG%share of xG
46% 54%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 2
Shots on goal
32 19
Attempts
57 51
xG by period · whole game 1st0.31.02nd1.31.83rd1.20.5

The Jets beat the Avalanche 3–1 at home in a game the chances called about even, COL 2.8 to WPG 3.4 in expected goals. The Avalanche power play made 1.0 xG on 11 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative COL − WPG xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2COL AHEAD ▲WPG AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative COL minus WPG expected goals. Above zero COL is ahead on chances, below zero WPG is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

COL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Tristen NielsenF11:39+0.76Adam BeckmanF11:52+0.66Christian WolaninD13:27+0.64Gustav StjernbergD11:33+0.29Fabian LysellF11:33+0.18Taylor MakarF11:16-0.03Nikita PrishchepovF9:10-0.04Noah JuulsenD16:32-0.25Alex GagneD15:59-0.27Zachary L'HeureuxF10:56-0.49Vinnie HinostrozaF11:21-0.52Parker KellyF13:48-0.56Brett KulakD18:27-0.65Logan O'ConnorF14:31-0.73Georgii MerkulovF12:26-1.35Fedor SvechkovF14:16-1.43Nicolas RoyF15:08-1.53Sam MalinskiD19:52-1.96
WPG
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Vladislav NamestnikovF12:16+1.77Noah GregorF11:40+1.53Dylan DeMeloD16:43+1.03Mario FerraroD16:51+0.81Cole KoepkeF11:43+0.55Jacob JulienF8:27+0.48Josh MorrisseyD18:06+0.43Gabriel VilardiF13:54+0.38Henry ThrunD15:27+0.35Davis BurnsideF7:10+0.33Isak RosenF12:00+0.32Kieron WaltonF8:18+0.20Viggo BjörckF13:25+0.15Dysin MayoD13:37+0.14Jack St. IvanyD16:01-0.30Mark ScheifeleF16:42-0.30Cole PerfettiF15:30-0.33Kyle ConnorF17:05-0.43

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

COL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Parker KellyLogan O'ConnorZachary L'Heureux9:04-0.28L2Vinnie HinostrozaAdam BeckmanTristen Nielsen7:55+0.82L3Nicolas RoyFedor SvechkovTaylor Makar7:16+0.01L4Fabian LysellGeorgii MerkulovNikita Prishchepov6:32-0.05DEFENCE PAIRSD1Brett KulakSam Malinski15:52-0.65D2Noah JuulsenAlex Gagne13:41-0.28D3Christian WolaninGustav Stjernberg8:28+0.351ST2ND3RD011
WPG
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Mark ScheifeleKyle ConnorCole Perfetti14:11-0.40L2Gabriel VilardiIsak RosenViggo Björck9:05-0.06L3Vladislav NamestnikovNoah GregorCole Koepke7:43+0.47L4Jacob JulienKieron WaltonDavis Burnside4:55+0.19DEFENCE PAIRSD1Dylan DeMeloJosh Morrissey14:20+0.08D2Mario FerraroJack St. Ivany13:47-0.22D3Dysin MayoHenry Thrun11:45+0.131ST2ND3RD011

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
COLGeorgii Merkulov 3rd14:34 0.14
WPGGabriel Vilardi 1st18:55 0.08
WPGCole Perfetti 2nd18:50 0.08
WPGDylan DeMelo 3rd6:37 0.01