xJawn NHL expected goals

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SEA 4 2 CGY

Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames

Final · Sep 20, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from SEA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = SEA power play · PK = CGY power play · Leading = SEA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

SEA attacks◀ all strengths
CGY attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: SEA attacks the left net, CGY the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from SEA's side and mirrored for CGY: “SEA PP” shows SEA's power-play attempts on the left and CGY's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
SEA CGY
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 2
Expected goals
2.00 2.48
xG%share of xG
45% 55%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 0
Shots on goal
22 24
Attempts
53 55
xG by period · whole game 1st1.01.12nd0.40.73rd0.50.6

The Kraken beat the Flames 4–2 on the road in a game the chances called about even, SEA 2.0 to CGY 2.5 in expected goals. At 5v5: SEA 1.3, CGY 1.9.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative SEA − CGY xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1SEA AHEAD ▲CGY AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative SEA minus CGY expected goals. Above zero SEA is ahead on chances, below zero CGY is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

SEA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Gustav OlofssonD19:22+0.50Ty NelsonD17:18+0.46Jagger FirkusF14:52+0.37Logan MorrisonF13:24+0.19Ryan WintertonF16:14+0.11Tyson JugnauthD18:30+0.06Jon-Randall AvonF15:14-0.01Curtis DouglasF7:49-0.02Oscar Fisker MolgaardF15:55-0.03Carson RehkopfF11:01-0.03Nathan VilleneuveF9:03-0.12Mitchell StephensF13:44-0.18John HaydenF10:55-0.21Jani NymanF14:06-0.27Caden PriceD18:47-0.32Eduard SaleF13:06-0.43Ville OttavainenD15:45-0.78Kaden HammellD15:12-0.80
CGY
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Aydar SunievF13:25+0.82William StromgrenF16:16+0.38Andrew BashaF12:42+0.31Brayden PachalD13:58+0.31Joel HanleyD15:49+0.27Abram WiebeD14:30+0.21Rory KerinsF15:48+0.21Tyson GrossF16:49+0.21Matvei GridinF17:20+0.17Hunter BrzustewiczD17:50+0.16Jonathan CastagnaF11:54+0.15Alex NylanderF16:24+0.12Dryden HuntF14:08+0.00Brennan OthmannF0:53-0.01Zayne ParekhD20:51-0.05Samuel HonzekF14:00-0.14Ben JonesF11:38-0.41Yan KuznetsovD15:59-0.51

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

SEA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Mitchell StephensJon-Randall AvonEduard Sale8:58-0.26L2Jagger FirkusJani NymanOscar Fisker Molgaard8:01-0.10L3Ryan WintertonLogan MorrisonCarson Rehkopf6:36+0.26L4John HaydenCurtis DouglasNathan Villeneuve5:55-0.06DEFENCE PAIRSD1Caden PriceKaden Hammell11:20-0.27D2Gustav OlofssonTy Nelson11:17+0.43D3Ville OttavainenTyson Jugnauth10:11-0.581ST2ND3RD00.750.75
CGY
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Alex NylanderRory KerinsMatvei Gridin11:21-0.07L2William StromgrenAndrew BashaTyson Gross9:40+0.41L3Dryden HuntBen JonesSamuel Honzek5:29-0.08L4Brennan OthmannJonathan CastagnaAydar Suniev0:29+0.00DEFENCE PAIRSD1Joel HanleyBrayden Pachal13:16+0.35D2Yan KuznetsovZayne Parekh12:40-0.51D3Abram WiebeHunter Brzustewicz11:46+0.101ST2ND3RD011

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
SEATy Nelson 1st4:51 0.13
SEAJagger Firkus 1st9:23 PP 0.07
SEALogan Morrison 3rd11:59 PP 0.10
SEAJon-Randall Avon 3rd19:44 EN 0.52
CGYAydar Suniev 1st13:01 0.17
CGYAydar Suniev 3rd10:26 0.02