xJawn NHL expected goals

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UTA 1 4 COL

Utah Mammoth at Colorado Avalanche

Final · Sep 20, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from UTA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = UTA power play · PK = COL power play · Leading = UTA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

UTA attacks◀ all strengths
COL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: UTA attacks the left net, COL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from UTA's side and mirrored for COL: “UTA PP” shows UTA's power-play attempts on the left and COL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
UTA COL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 4
Expected goals
2.87 2.19
xG%share of xG
57% 43%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 1
Shots on goal
24 17
Attempts
46 50
xG by period · whole game 1st0.10.62nd1.00.93rd1.80.7

The Avalanche beat the Mammoth 4–1 at home in a game the chances called about even, UTA 2.9 to COL 2.2 in expected goals. The Mammoth power play made 1.4 xG on 10 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative UTA − COL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1UTA AHEAD ▲COL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative UTA minus COL expected goals. Above zero UTA is ahead on chances, below zero COL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

UTA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Daniil ButF14:17+0.45Joshua RoyF12:36+0.24Artem DudaD21:28+0.21John MarinoD22:46+0.21Yegor BorikovF10:37+0.15Michael CarconeF12:14+0.12Gabe SmithF12:43+0.03Vincent TrocheckF16:44-0.05Lawson CrouseF17:44-0.09Caleb DesnoyersF10:52-0.13Ben McCartneyF11:32-0.14Kevin RooneyF11:36-0.15Brandon TanevF11:48-0.17Maveric LamoureuxD17:48-0.26Max PšeničkaD14:20-0.29Gregor BiberD14:58-0.35Kailer YamamotoF14:18-0.37Nick DeSimoneD17:02-0.60
COL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Domenick FensoreD15:41+0.75Gabriel LandeskogF13:14+0.67Devon ToewsD21:49+0.38Jaden SchwartzF14:25+0.34T.J. HughesF16:19+0.29Brock NelsonF16:13+0.29Martin NecasF14:36+0.29Nazem KadriF13:23+0.29Alex GagneD16:07+0.17Gavin BrindleyF14:26+0.07Matthew DiMarsicoF12:29+0.02Artturi LehkonenF18:01-0.03Nikita PrishchepovF11:49-0.06Beckett HamiltonF12:45-0.08Taylor MakarF10:34-0.14Josh MansonD14:23-0.26Brent BurnsD18:08-0.28Sean BehrensD16:32-0.56

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

UTA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Vincent TrocheckLawson CrouseKailer Yamamoto9:35+0.04L2Michael CarconeDaniil ButCaleb Desnoyers9:02-0.19L3Kevin RooneyBrandon TanevJoshua Roy7:26-0.14L4Ben McCartneyGabe SmithYegor Borikov7:20-0.00DEFENCE PAIRSD1John MarinoArtem Duda12:21+0.26D2Nick DeSimoneMax Pšenička7:49-0.12D3Maveric LamoureuxGregor Biber7:35-0.151ST2ND3RD00.750.75
COL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Brock NelsonJaden SchwartzT.J. Hughes12:31+0.33L2Nazem KadriGabriel LandeskogGavin Brindley9:42+0.29L3Artturi LehkonenMartin NecasBeckett Hamilton9:23-0.29L4Taylor MakarNikita PrishchepovMatthew DiMarsico8:38+0.17DEFENCE PAIRSD1Brent BurnsSean Behrens11:57-0.52D2Josh MansonAlex Gagne10:45+0.39D3Devon ToewsDomenick Fensore10:24+0.381ST2ND3RD00.750.75

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
UTAYegor Borikov 2nd15:27 0.24
COLBeckett Hamilton 2nd8:54 0.25
COLGavin Brindley 3rd1:52 0.19
COLBrock Nelson 3rd2:27 PP 0.10
COLTaylor Makar 3rd17:27 0.13