xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 20, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from NSH's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = NSH power play · PK = TBL power play · Leading = NSH ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

NSH attacks◀ all strengths
TBL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: NSH attacks the left net, TBL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from NSH's side and mirrored for TBL: “NSH PP” shows NSH's power-play attempts on the left and TBL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
NSH TBL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 2
Expected goals
1.25 2.46
xG%share of xG
34% 66%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
0 0
Shots on goal
13 22
Attempts
31 51
xG by period · whole game 1st0.4–1.32nd0.5–0.73rd0.3–0.5

The Lightning beat the Predators 2–1 at home, and the chances agreed: TBL out-created NSH 2.5–1.2 in expected goals. At 5v5: NSH 0.7, TBL 1.7.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative NSH − TBL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5NSH AHEAD ▲TBL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative NSH minus TBL expected goals. Above zero NSH is ahead on chances, below zero TBL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
NSHBrady Martin 1st7:39 0.12
TBLIlya Mikheyev 1st1:33 0.09
TBLConor Geekie 1st15:31 0.13
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

NSH
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Aiden FinkF11:44+0.26Oasiz WiesblattF9:47+0.07Jake LucchiniF12:51+0.00Tanner MolendykD20:41-0.07Felix NilssonF15:19-0.12Cole O'HaraF13:03-0.21Brady MartinF17:33-0.23David EdstromF14:58-0.31Tyson JostF18:42-0.31Nick PerbixD19:20-0.41Joakim KemellF20:03-0.42Viggo GustafssonD13:42-0.42Chase BradleyF11:18-0.45Jack AhcanD23:28-0.46Reid SchaeferF20:10-0.46Ozzy WiesblattF15:21-0.51Hunter SkinnerD19:41-0.74Andrew GibsonD14:11-0.75
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Aiden FinkF8:17+0.11Tanner MolendykD10:31+0.09Oasiz WiesblattF9:38+0.07Jake LucchiniF8:53+0.06Nick PerbixD12:16-0.04Cole O'HaraF8:25-0.16Felix NilssonF10:19-0.24Tyson JostF9:19-0.31Brady MartinF9:22-0.32Chase BradleyF10:11-0.33Joakim KemellF9:05-0.42Viggo GustafssonD13:16-0.42Reid SchaeferF9:32-0.44David EdstromF8:05-0.45Jack AhcanD13:49-0.47Ozzy WiesblattF11:09-0.54Hunter SkinnerD14:41-0.56Andrew GibsonD11:12-0.69
0.250.250.50.50Tyson JostF4:43+0.22Brady MartinF5:57+0.20Reid SchaeferF5:37+0.20Jack AhcanD5:30+0.20Joakim KemellF5:29+0.18Ozzy WiesblattF1:24+0.18Felix NilssonF4:02+0.17Tanner MolendykD4:15+0.15David EdstromF3:59+0.15Aiden FinkF3:27+0.15Hunter SkinnerD0:11+0.00Viggo GustafssonD0:10+0.00Oasiz WiesblattF0:08+0.00Jake LucchiniF0:04+0.00Chase BradleyF0:03+0.00Cole O'HaraF3:56-0.05
0.250.250.50.50David EdstromF0:32+0.00Brady MartinF0:03+0.00Oasiz WiesblattF0:01+0.00Jake LucchiniF3:19-0.06Andrew GibsonD2:18-0.06Reid SchaeferF2:54-0.12Hunter SkinnerD3:09-0.12Joakim KemellF2:09-0.12Jack AhcanD1:55-0.12Chase BradleyF0:42-0.12Ozzy WiesblattF2:13-0.16Tyson JostF3:46-0.22Tanner MolendykD3:31-0.22Nick PerbixD4:41-0.28
TBL
against for own net ice time
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Benjamin RautiainenF13:00+0.64Conor GeekieF16:15+0.62Nikita KucherovF19:28+0.62John CarlsonD21:56+0.54Brayden PointF17:30+0.54Erik CernakD16:17+0.42Jake GuentzelF19:35+0.42Victor HedmanD19:13+0.39Sam O'ReillyF15:11+0.39Ryan McDonaghD17:55+0.33J.J. MoserD18:26+0.30Anthony CirelliF14:28+0.30Brandon HagelF17:57+0.20Ilya MikheyevF13:32+0.19Oleg KulebiakinF9:34+0.14Ethan CzataF10:10+0.11Scott SabourinF9:37+0.11Max CrozierD18:40+0.01
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Erik CernakD12:03+0.61Ryan McDonaghD12:34+0.54Nikita KucherovF10:15+0.39Ilya MikheyevF8:43+0.34Benjamin RautiainenF9:31+0.32Sam O'ReillyF8:29+0.32John CarlsonD12:48+0.31Brayden PointF10:01+0.30Anthony CirelliF8:09+0.29Conor GeekieF10:08+0.29J.J. MoserD13:31+0.27Jake GuentzelF9:44+0.24Brandon HagelF8:16+0.23Victor HedmanD11:38+0.20Oleg KulebiakinF9:34+0.14Ethan CzataF10:10+0.11Scott SabourinF9:37+0.11Max CrozierD12:49+0.06
0.250.250Victor HedmanD2:18+0.22Conor GeekieF1:48+0.22Sam O'ReillyF1:30+0.22Benjamin RautiainenF1:26+0.22Anthony CirelliF1:25+0.22Nikita KucherovF6:22+0.18Brayden PointF6:13+0.18Jake GuentzelF6:08+0.18Brandon HagelF6:06+0.18John CarlsonD5:30+0.18Max CrozierD0:09+0.00Erik CernakD0:05+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Jake GuentzelF2:31+0.01Conor GeekieF2:28+0.01John CarlsonD1:19+0.00J.J. MoserD3:19-0.01Max CrozierD4:40-0.14Victor HedmanD3:48-0.14Ilya MikheyevF3:57-0.15Sam O'ReillyF3:35-0.15Erik CernakD2:39-0.19Ryan McDonaghD3:50-0.20Brandon HagelF3:35-0.20Anthony CirelliF3:27-0.20

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

NSH
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
TBL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
NSH won the chances TBL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
VasilevskiySabourinCzataKulebiakinGeekieO'ReillyRautiainenKucherovPointMikheyevGuentzelCirelliHagelCarlsonMoserMcDonaghCernakHedmanCrozierGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3SarosSchaeferO'HaraMartinLucchiniFinkWiesblattJostKemellNilssonWiesblattBradleyEdstromSkinnerGustafssonAhcanGibsonPerbixMolendyk
How to read this

Rows are NSH's skaters, columns TBL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.