xJawn NHL expected goals

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NSH 1 2 TBL

Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning

Final · Sep 20, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from NSH's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = NSH power play · PK = TBL power play · Leading = NSH ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

NSH attacks◀ all strengths
TBL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: NSH attacks the left net, TBL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from NSH's side and mirrored for TBL: “NSH PP” shows NSH's power-play attempts on the left and TBL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
NSH TBL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 2
Expected goals
1.25 2.46
xG%share of xG
34% 66%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
0 0
Shots on goal
13 22
Attempts
31 51
xG by period · whole game 1st0.41.32nd0.50.73rd0.30.5

The Lightning beat the Predators 2–1 at home, and the chances agreed: TBL out-created NSH 2.5–1.2 in expected goals. At 5v5: NSH 0.7, TBL 1.7.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative NSH − TBL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5NSH AHEAD ▲TBL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative NSH minus TBL expected goals. Above zero NSH is ahead on chances, below zero TBL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

NSH
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Aiden FinkF11:44+0.26Oasiz WiesblattF9:47+0.07Jake LucchiniF12:51+0.00Tanner MolendykD20:41-0.07Felix NilssonF15:19-0.12Cole O'HaraF13:03-0.21Brady MartinF17:33-0.23David EdstromF14:58-0.31Tyson JostF18:42-0.31Nick PerbixD19:20-0.41Joakim KemellF20:03-0.42Viggo GustafssonD13:42-0.42Chase BradleyF11:18-0.45Jack AhcanD23:28-0.46Reid SchaeferF20:10-0.46Ozzy WiesblattF15:21-0.51Hunter SkinnerD19:41-0.74Andrew GibsonD14:11-0.75
TBL
against for own net ice time
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Benjamin RautiainenF13:00+0.64Conor GeekieF16:15+0.62Nikita KucherovF19:28+0.62John CarlsonD21:56+0.54Brayden PointF17:30+0.54Erik CernakD16:17+0.42Jake GuentzelF19:35+0.42Victor HedmanD19:13+0.39Sam O'ReillyF15:11+0.39Ryan McDonaghD17:55+0.33J.J. MoserD18:26+0.30Anthony CirelliF14:28+0.30Brandon HagelF17:57+0.20Ilya MikheyevF13:32+0.19Oleg KulebiakinF9:34+0.14Ethan CzataF10:10+0.11Scott SabourinF9:37+0.11Max CrozierD18:40+0.01

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

NSH
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Reid SchaeferCole O'HaraBrady Martin8:48-0.19L2Jake LucchiniAiden FinkOasiz Wiesblatt5:00+0.17L3Tyson JostJoakim KemellFelix Nilsson3:57-0.16L4Ozzy WiesblattChase BradleyDavid Edstrom3:54-0.27DEFENCE PAIRSD1Nick PerbixTanner Molendyk15:16-0.17D2Hunter SkinnerViggo Gustafsson11:18-0.33D3Jack AhcanAndrew Gibson10:10-0.491ST2ND3RD00.750.75
TBL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Conor GeekieSam O'ReillyBenjamin Rautiainen10:34+0.54L2Scott SabourinEthan CzataOleg Kulebiakin8:21+0.14L3Nikita KucherovBrayden PointIlya Mikheyev7:43+0.34L4Jake GuentzelAnthony CirelliBrandon Hagel6:40+0.26DEFENCE PAIRSD1Victor HedmanMax Crozier15:38+0.13D2Ryan McDonaghErik Cernak15:13+0.31D3John CarlsonJ.J. Moser14:36+0.361ST2ND3RD00.750.75

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
NSHBrady Martin 1st7:39 0.12
TBLIlya Mikheyev 1st1:33 0.09
TBLConor Geekie 1st15:31 0.13