xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 19, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from MTL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = MTL power play · PK = TOR power play · Leading = MTL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

MTL attacks◀ all strengths
TOR attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: MTL attacks the left net, TOR the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from MTL's side and mirrored for TOR: “MTL PP” shows MTL's power-play attempts on the left and TOR's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
MTL TOR
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 1
Expected goals
2.59 2.10
xG%share of xG
55% 45%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 1
Shots on goal
28 25
Attempts
55 45
xG by period · whole game 1st1.0–0.72nd0.7–1.03rd0.8–0.4

The Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 4–1 on the road in a game the chances called about even, MTL 2.6 to TOR 2.1 in expected goals. The Maple Leafs power play made 0.9 xG on 15 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative MTL − TOR xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1MTL AHEAD ▲TOR AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative MTL minus TOR expected goals. Above zero MTL is ahead on chances, below zero TOR is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
MTLPhillip Danault 2nd0:51 0.11
MTLMaksymilian Szuber 3rd4:46 0.02
MTLPhillip Danault 3rd18:59 EN 0.41
MTLSamuel Poulin 3rd19:37 0.12
TORDarren Raddysh 2nd16:39 PP 0.05
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

MTL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Zachary BolducF16:16+1.07Alexandre TexierF16:02+1.07Kirby DachF16:31+0.95Maksymilian SzuberD13:26+0.61Florian XhekajF11:59+0.41Reilly WalshD13:25+0.33Brett BerardF12:45+0.17Phillip DanaultF18:00+0.12Noah DobsonD22:49+0.09Samuel PoulinF10:02+0.04Alex NewhookF18:46-0.04Filip MesarF9:55-0.13Josh AndersonF17:38-0.15David ReinbacherD22:02-0.20Mike MathesonD23:48-0.23Hunter McKownF10:53-0.26Adam EngstromD19:56-0.31Jake EvansF15:49-0.49
0.50.5110Zachary BolducF12:43+0.81Alexandre TexierF12:28+0.81Maksymilian SzuberD12:08+0.71Kirby DachF12:56+0.68Phillip DanaultF11:21+0.41Reilly WalshD13:08+0.40Florian XhekajF10:34+0.39Mike MathesonD14:45+0.38Josh AndersonF10:40+0.30Noah DobsonD13:59+0.17Alex NewhookF10:48+0.07Brett BerardF10:00+0.07Adam EngstromD14:29+0.04David ReinbacherD17:01+0.03Samuel PoulinF7:42-0.06Jake EvansF11:14-0.13Filip MesarF7:39-0.23Hunter McKownF8:07-0.29
0.250.250.50.50Noah DobsonD3:15+0.42Alex NewhookF3:05+0.42Kirby DachF3:26+0.35Alexandre TexierF3:25+0.35Zachary BolducF3:25+0.35Brett BerardF2:25+0.10Samuel PoulinF2:20+0.10Filip MesarF2:16+0.10Hunter McKownF2:46+0.03Mike MathesonD2:29+0.03Phillip DanaultF0:10+0.02Josh AndersonF0:10+0.02Florian XhekajF0:10+0.02Reilly WalshD0:09+0.02Maksymilian SzuberD0:09+0.02Adam EngstromD0:07+0.00David ReinbacherD0:07+0.00Jake EvansF0:06+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Brett BerardF0:20+0.00Florian XhekajF0:19+0.00Alexandre TexierF0:01-0.09Kirby DachF0:01-0.09Maksymilian SzuberD1:09-0.12David ReinbacherD4:41-0.23Phillip DanaultF5:33-0.30Adam EngstromD5:07-0.35Jake EvansF4:29-0.37Josh AndersonF5:52-0.47Noah DobsonD4:44-0.50Alex NewhookF4:53-0.53Mike MathesonD5:43-0.64
TOR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Jack RoslovicF19:49+0.62Auston MatthewsF21:20+0.57William NylanderF22:06+0.43John TavaresF21:03+0.24Matthew KniesF20:22+0.13Darren RaddyshD24:05+0.11Gavin McKennaF20:39+0.10Tinus Luc KoblarF11:29+0.01Bo GroulxF14:17-0.17Harry NansiF6:14-0.25Chris TanevD18:23-0.35Marshall RifaiD14:26-0.38Emil AndraeD17:46-0.40Jake McCabeD19:26-0.41Jacob QuillanF12:09-0.44Zack MacEwenF8:10-0.56Steven LorentzF9:16-0.56Ben DanfordD14:04-0.57
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Gavin McKennaF15:15-0.02Bo GroulxF9:31-0.04Tinus Luc KoblarF7:54-0.11Chris TanevD14:04-0.13Matthew KniesF11:26-0.15Jack RoslovicF13:10-0.18Auston MatthewsF12:09-0.19John TavaresF13:32-0.24William NylanderF12:20-0.24Harry NansiF6:14-0.25Marshall RifaiD11:21-0.26Jake McCabeD14:59-0.27Zack MacEwenF7:20-0.32Jacob QuillanF10:19-0.36Emil AndraeD15:06-0.40Darren RaddyshD15:01-0.43Steven LorentzF8:13-0.48Ben DanfordD13:11-0.57
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110William NylanderF6:58+0.80Auston MatthewsF6:57+0.80Jack RoslovicF6:31+0.80Darren RaddyshD7:03+0.71John TavaresF6:19+0.50Matthew KniesF4:23+0.42Gavin McKennaF4:22+0.12Bo GroulxF3:35+0.12Tinus Luc KoblarF3:35+0.12Marshall RifaiD0:55+0.12Chris TanevD0:11+0.09Jake McCabeD0:11+0.09Emil AndraeD2:34+0.00Ben DanfordD0:01+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Ben DanfordD0:52+0.00Emil AndraeD0:06+0.00Gavin McKennaF0:06+0.00John TavaresF0:16-0.02Auston MatthewsF1:10-0.03Jacob QuillanF1:50-0.08Steven LorentzF1:03-0.08William NylanderF1:44-0.12Matthew KniesF3:29-0.14Darren RaddyshD1:05-0.17Jake McCabeD4:08-0.23Marshall RifaiD2:10-0.24Bo GroulxF1:11-0.24Zack MacEwenF0:50-0.24Chris TanevD4:00-0.30

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

MTL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
TOR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
MTL won the chances TOR won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
StolarzBobrovskyTavaresNylanderMcKennaRoslovicMatthewsKniesLorentzMacEwenQuillanGroulxLuc KoblarNansiTanevMcCabeRaddyshAndraeRifaiDanfordGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3KahkonenMontembeaultTexierDachBolducEvansNewhookBerardDanaultAndersonXhekajPoulinMesarMcKownEngstromReinbacherMathesonDobsonWalshSzuber
How to read this

Rows are MTL's skaters, columns TOR's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.