xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · DAL skaters · STL skaters · DAL lines · STL lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →

DAL 2 – 1 STL

Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues

Final · Sep 19, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from DAL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = DAL power play · PK = STL power play · Leading = DAL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

DAL attacks◀ all strengths
STL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: DAL attacks the left net, STL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from DAL's side and mirrored for STL: “DAL PP” shows DAL's power-play attempts on the left and STL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
DAL STL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 1
Expected goals
2.36 2.56
xG%share of xG
48% 52%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 3
Shots on goal
28 24
Attempts
50 58
xG by period · whole game 1st1.0–0.42nd0.5–1.13rd0.9–1.1

The Stars beat the Blues 2–1 on the road in a game the chances called about even, DAL 2.4 to STL 2.6 in expected goals. The Stars power play made 0.8 xG on 13 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative DAL − STL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1DAL AHEAD ▲STL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative DAL minus STL expected goals. Above zero DAL is ahead on chances, below zero STL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
DALArttu Hyry 1st0:16 0.19
DALJack Becker 2nd18:29 0.17
STLAleksanteri Kaskimaki 2nd13:30 0.16
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

DAL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Trey TaylorD21:49+0.64Kyle BurroughsD18:34+0.46Artem ShlaineF18:18+0.45Arttu HyryF18:51+0.41Kyle CapobiancoD22:06+0.16Matthew SeminoffF16:36+0.04Emil HemmingF16:29+0.02Justin ErtelF10:40+0.02Cameron HughesF15:59+0.00Curtis McKenzieF10:48-0.02Michael SgarbossaF17:11-0.07Jack AndersonD18:05-0.15Christian FitzgeraldF10:56-0.17Charlie PaquetteF12:49-0.21Dylan HryckowianF18:27-0.25Jack BeckerF10:34-0.49Ben GleasonD21:45-0.80Jakub VaněčekD14:03-0.99
0.50.5111.51.50Kyle BurroughsD14:38+0.36Trey TaylorD13:45+0.19Kyle CapobiancoD15:30+0.10Arttu HyryF11:11+0.06Justin ErtelF10:35+0.01Curtis McKenzieF10:38-0.03Jack AndersonD16:01-0.07Cameron HughesF9:21-0.10Michael SgarbossaF11:55-0.12Christian FitzgeraldF10:48-0.17Charlie PaquetteF12:49-0.21Artem ShlaineF11:08-0.29Dylan HryckowianF11:18-0.30Matthew SeminoffF10:46-0.33Jack BeckerF10:18-0.50Emil HemmingF12:06-0.56Jakub VaněčekD13:48-0.99Ben GleasonD15:25-1.29
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Emil HemmingF3:51+0.58Ben GleasonD3:49+0.58Artem ShlaineF3:45+0.58Matthew SeminoffF3:44+0.58Trey TaylorD3:09+0.57Kyle CapobiancoD4:41+0.27Cameron HughesF4:10+0.25Michael SgarbossaF4:07+0.25Arttu HyryF4:06+0.25Dylan HryckowianF4:01+0.25Kyle BurroughsD0:10+0.01Jack BeckerF0:09+0.01Jack AndersonD0:08+0.01Curtis McKenzieF0:05+0.01Justin ErtelF0:05+0.01
0.250.250.50.50Artem ShlaineF3:08+0.15Kyle BurroughsD2:46+0.09Arttu HyryF2:15+0.09Jakub VaněčekD0:15+0.00Christian FitzgeraldF0:08+0.00Jack BeckerF0:07+0.00Curtis McKenzieF0:05+0.00Ben GleasonD1:56-0.09Jack AndersonD1:56-0.09Trey TaylorD3:54-0.12Cameron HughesF1:27-0.15Matthew SeminoffF1:02-0.21Dylan HryckowianF2:33-0.21Kyle CapobiancoD1:19-0.21Michael SgarbossaF1:09-0.21
STL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Arseni KoromyslovD23:26+0.77Justin CarbonneauF17:42+0.65Tyler TuckerD18:52+0.65Ross JohnstonF12:09+0.64Aleksanteri KaskimakiF20:22+0.57Zach DeanF16:18+0.50Alexey ToropchenkoF13:16+0.41Pius SuterF19:01+0.14Jakub StanclF13:20+0.07Juraj PekarcikF11:21-0.06Maddox DagenaisF14:23-0.10Quinton BurnsD14:00-0.16Colin RalphD18:31-0.27Lukas FischerD15:57-0.29Jack FinleyF13:56-0.30Theo LindsteinD23:32-0.38Dylan PetersonF12:21-0.39Otto StenbergF15:09-0.45
0.50.5110Aleksanteri KaskimakiF12:58+0.74Tyler TuckerD15:34+0.66Ross JohnstonF12:01+0.64Arseni KoromyslovD16:33+0.57Zach DeanF10:30+0.55Justin CarbonneauF12:19+0.54Alexey ToropchenkoF10:03+0.43Quinton BurnsD12:14+0.26Colin RalphD15:29+0.15Lukas FischerD14:07+0.13Jack FinleyF11:36+0.08Dylan PetersonF9:47+0.06Pius SuterF10:35+0.05Jakub StanclF11:11-0.02Theo LindsteinD14:48-0.08Juraj PekarcikF9:11-0.14Otto StenbergF10:56-0.18Maddox DagenaisF12:08-0.20
0.250.250.50.50Arseni KoromyslovD1:53+0.21Theo LindsteinD4:02+0.11Justin CarbonneauF3:46+0.11Zach DeanF3:41+0.11Aleksanteri KaskimakiF3:40+0.11Pius SuterF3:37+0.11Maddox DagenaisF2:15+0.10Jakub StanclF2:09+0.10Otto StenbergF2:05+0.10Juraj PekarcikF2:05+0.10Lukas FischerD0:12+0.00Jack FinleyF0:11+0.00Ross JohnstonF0:08+0.00Alexey ToropchenkoF0:08+0.00Quinton BurnsD0:08+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Justin CarbonneauF0:01+0.00Juraj PekarcikF0:05-0.01Arseni KoromyslovD3:24-0.01Tyler TuckerD3:18-0.01Pius SuterF3:13-0.02Alexey ToropchenkoF3:05-0.02Zach DeanF0:31-0.17Aleksanteri KaskimakiF2:08-0.29Otto StenbergF2:08-0.36Jack FinleyF2:09-0.37Theo LindsteinD3:06-0.41Colin RalphD3:02-0.41Quinton BurnsD1:38-0.42Lukas FischerD1:38-0.42Dylan PetersonF2:34-0.46

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

DAL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
STL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
DAL won the chances STL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
BinningtonRomanovDeanKaskimakiCarbonneauFinleyStenbergDagenaisPetersonStanclPekarcikJohnstonToropchenkoSuterTuckerKoromyslovLindsteinRalphBurnsFischerGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3PoirierHalversonShlaineHemmingHryckowianHughesSeminoffHyryMcKenzieBeckerErtelSgarbossaPaquetteFitzgeraldCapobiancoAndersonGleasonVaněčekBurroughsTaylor
How to read this

Rows are DAL's skaters, columns STL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.