xJawn NHL expected goals

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DET James van Riemsdyk

L · career · 16 seasons · 5v5 value in goals above league average per 60

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26DET687 +0.05-0.05+0.04 +0.04+0.5 60th
2024-25CBJ803 +0.02-0.19+0.04 -0.12-1.7 27th
2023-24BOS874 +0.23+0.04+0.05 +0.32+4.6 92nd
2022-23PHI771 +0.05+0.16+0.05 +0.25+3.2 86th
2021-22PHI1,051 +0.03-0.07+0.05 +0.00+0.0 53rd
2020-21PHI735 -0.01+0.03+0.04 +0.06+0.8 68th
2019-20PHI920 +0.10+0.04+0.06 +0.19+3.0 92nd
2018-19PHI863 -0.04-0.11+0.04 -0.11-1.6 16th
2017-18TOR1,055 +0.08+0.08+0.06 +0.22+3.9 95th
2016-17TOR1,144 +0.06+0.01+0.06 +0.13+2.5 86th
2015-16TOR561 +0.09+0.08+0.05 +0.21+2.0 94th
2014-15TOR1,150 -0.03-0.25+0.04 -0.24-4.5 2nd
2013-14TOR1,257 +0.16-0.27+0.05 -0.05-1.1 44th
2012-13TOR812 +0.17-0.18+0.05 +0.04+0.5 61st
2011-12PHI575 +0.06-0.04+0.05 +0.07+0.7 78th
2010-11PHI1,103 +0.12-0.05+0.06 +0.13+2.3 84th

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__5766c017 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.