WPG @ STL
Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues
2026-27 · regular season
2.57–3.15
▶ The pregame read STL 59.9% · expected 2.57–3.15 · score outcomes, predicted map, tale of the tape · issued before puck drop
The call
The engine makes STL a 59.9% favorite, expecting a 2.57–3.15 game — STL controls 55.1% of the predicted xG. Of WPG's 2.57 expected goals, 1.77 should come at 5v5 and 0.63 on the power play; STL projects 2.38 at 5v5 and 0.67 on the power play. The logistic challenger puts the home side at 61.5%, Elo at 58.5%.
| win chance | × expected goals | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 5v5 play | +4.6 | STL ×1.00 · WPG ×0.90 | |
| home ice | +3.6 | STL ×1.08 · WPG ×1.00 | |
| finishing | +2.0 | STL ×1.05 · WPG ×1.01 | |
| goaltending | −0.6 | STL ×0.97 · WPG ×0.98 | |
| special teams | −0.1 | STL ×0.99 · WPG ×0.99 | |
| schedule | +0.0 | STL ×1.00 · WPG ×1.00 |
Win chance is in points toward STL (bars right of the line push toward STL, left toward WPG). Each win-chance number is one-at-a-time: that piece reset to league average (neutral ice, a typical night's rest) on both sides and the game re-priced; the pieces interact, so they don't add up to the call. The multipliers are exact: a league-average team on neutral ice, on a typical night's rest, would expect 2.88 goals in this game, and each side's expected goals is that times its column of multipliers. Special teams reads small because the engine's power-play terms fit near zero, not because special teams don't matter.
Open this matchup in the lab → to swap sides or adjust each team's rest situation.
Score outcomes
The same Poisson engine, read as a full score distribution instead of a single number: likeliest finals, how often the game needs more than regulation, and each team's goal spread — ■ WPG · ■ STL.
| Likeliest finals (WPG–STL) | probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 2–2 | 7.6% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 3–3 | 6.9% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 2–4 | 4.7% | |
| 1–3 | 4.6% | |
| 2–3 | 3.8% |
Scoreline odds are the engine's own grid: each team's goals as a Poisson count, with the fitted adjustment for how often games end tied after regulation (ρ = 0.35), so these odds and the headline win probability come from the same numbers. The OT/SO layer is a separate fitted model and is already inside the headline win probability.
Tale of the tape
How each team fares on its own, season to date: per-game xG rates with league rank (of 32). Rank 1 is best on every row — orange ranks sit in the top third of the league, gray in the bottom third.
| WPG | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.73 (20th) | Offense xG for / game |
2.96 (14th) |
| 3.01 (19th) | Defense xG against / game |
2.68 (13th) |
| 0.63 (24th) | Power play PP xG / game |
0.68 (21st) |
| 0.66 (11th) | Penalty kill PP xG conceded / game |
0.67 (12th) |
Where the goals should come from
WPG attacks the left net, STL the right. Each end multiplies where the attacking team generates xG this season by where its opponent concedes it (both vs league), scaled so each end totals the engine's expected goals — both ends share one colour axis, so the favorite's end reads hotter. vs league average recolours the map as % above/below a league-average matchup; Special teams pairs each side's power play with the other's penalty kill. Season-to-date shot locations, empty-netters excluded.
| win prob | exp. goals | 5v5 | special teams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 40.1% | 2.57 | 1.77 | 0.63 |
| STL | 59.9% | 3.15 | 2.38 | 0.67 |
5v5 / special-teams portions come from the map's strength splits (one shared scale per team pins the all-strengths total to its expected goals), so they don't sum exactly — the remainder is 4v4, 3v3, and other mixed states.