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MIN 2 – 3 TBL

Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning

Final · Oct 8, 2026
2026-27 · regular season

The call

TBL 60.6% ✓

expected 2.65–3.29 · TBL won 2–3

actual xG
3.33–3.71

xG share, predicted → actual

MIN 45% → 47%55% → 53% TBL

Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from MIN's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = MIN power play · PK = TBL power play · Leading = MIN ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

MIN attacks◀ all strengths

TBL attacksall strengths ▶

× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw Save

How to read this map

One rink, both teams: MIN attacks the left net, TBL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from MIN's side and mirrored for TBL: “MIN PP” shows MIN's power-play attempts on the left and TBL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · regular season

MIN TBL

bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader

Goalson the map

2 3

Expected goals

3.33 3.71

xG%share of xG

47% 53%

High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG

4 3

Shots on goal

36 35

Attempts

62 70

xG by period · whole game 1st0.8–1.32nd1.3–1.13rd1.3–1.4

The Lightning beat the Wild 3–2 at home in a game the chances called about even, MIN 3.3 to TBL 3.7 in expected goals. The Wild power play made 0.8 xG on 13 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative MIN − TBL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals Save

How to read this

One line: cumulative MIN minus TBL expected goals. Above zero MIN is ahead on chances, below zero TBL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game

How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

MIN

against for own net ice time

Save

TBL

against for own net ice time

Save

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG

How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

MIN

on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Save

TBL

on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Save

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell Save

MIN won the chances TBL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team

How to read this

Rows are MIN's skaters, columns TBL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in

Team	Scorer	Period	Time		xG
MIN	Quinn Hughes	2nd	2:32		0.03
MIN	Blake Coleman	2nd	14:01	PP	0.06
TBL	Anthony Cirelli	1st	5:26		0.06
TBL	John Carlson	1st	6:02		0.02
TBL	John Carlson	2nd	4:55	PP	0.06

The prediction, scored

Before puck drop the engine made TBL a 60.6% favorite, expecting a 2.65–3.29 game — TBL won 2–3, so the call landed. Every number in this section was issued before the game and is never re-graded.

Predicted 5v5 / special-teams portions come from the predicted map's strength splits (one shared scale per team pins the all-strengths total to its expected goals), so they don't sum exactly — the remainder is 4v4, 3v3, and other mixed states. The actual columns are the card's own counts (empty-net attempts excluded); the actual PP column is power-play xG only, the same bucket the predicted map's special-teams view draws.

The pregame score grid

The likeliest finals the engine saw before the game, with what actually happened marked — ■ MIN · ■ TBL.

Scoreline odds treat the two teams' totals as independent — the engine's known simplification (it slightly under-counts regulation ties; the correlation term is registered v1.1 work). The OT/SO layer is a separate fitted model and is already inside the headline win probability.

The pregame read

The engine made TBL a 60.6% favorite — TBL controls 55.4% of the predicted xG. Of MIN's 2.65 expected goals, 1.75 should come at 5v5 and 0.74 on the power play; TBL projects 2.36 at 5v5 and 0.60 on the power play. The logistic challenger put the home side at 62.8%, Elo at 59.0%.

Where the engine expected the goals

The predicted surface, issued before puck drop — not this game's shots (those are the card's map above). MIN attacks the left net, TBL the right; each end multiplies where the attacking team generates xG this season by where its opponent concedes it, scaled so each end totals the engine's expected goals. Actual shots lays the game's unblocked attempts on top: × goals, • on net, ◦ missed.

Tale of the tape

How each team fares on its own, season to date: per-game xG rates with league rank (of 32). Rank 1 is best on every row — orange ranks sit in the top third of the league, gray in the bottom third.

Season-to-date form as of the site's latest build, shown for context — the ratings the engine actually used were its own as-of-game-day state. Replay this matchup in the lab →