xJawn NHL expected goals

← Games

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · MTL skaters · TOR skaters · MTL lines · TOR lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →

MTL 3 – 2 TOR

Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

Final · Sep 29, 2026
2026-27 · regular season
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from MTL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = MTL power play · PK = TOR power play · Leading = MTL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

MTL attacks◀ all strengths
TOR attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: MTL attacks the left net, TOR the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from MTL's side and mirrored for TOR: “MTL PP” shows MTL's power-play attempts on the left and TOR's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · regular season
MTL TOR
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 2
Expected goals
2.59 2.58
xG%share of xG
50% 50%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 1
Shots on goal
24 28
Attempts
51 50
xG by period · whole game 1st1.3–0.82nd0.7–0.53rd0.6–1.2

The Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 3–2 on the road in a game the chances called about even, MTL 2.6 to TOR 2.6 in expected goals. At 5v5: MTL 2.0, TOR 1.8.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative MTL − TOR xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1MTL AHEAD ▲TOR AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative MTL minus TOR expected goals. Above zero MTL is ahead on chances, below zero TOR is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

MTL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Josh AndersonF12:53+1.14Zachary BolducF11:04+0.67Mike MathesonD25:07+0.44Kirby DachF11:07+0.31Ivan DemidovF15:11+0.23Phillip DanaultF15:37+0.14Jayden StrubleD11:02+0.11Juraj SlafkovskýF17:53+0.04Jake EvansF14:50-0.00Alexandre CarrierD21:54-0.05Cole CaufieldF15:55-0.12Arber XhekajD12:20-0.16Lane HutsonD24:07-0.28Alexandre TexierF12:13-0.33Chris KreiderF14:21-0.34Noah DobsonD21:56-0.36Alex NewhookF16:11-0.39Nick SuzukiF18:43-0.53
TOR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Kirill MarchenkoF20:08+1.54Auston MatthewsF22:34+0.69Easton CowanF15:58+0.55Jack RoslovicF18:14+0.50John TavaresF16:36+0.49Morgan RiellyD21:30+0.32Darren RaddyshD23:47+0.18Teddy BluegerF9:46+0.08Jake McCabeD11:38+0.05Zack MacEwenF5:25-0.08Chris TanevD18:39-0.08Brandon DuhaimeF9:04-0.09Colton SissonsF14:58-0.18Troy StecherD19:05-0.41William NylanderF18:55-0.56Gavin McKennaF15:19-0.63Oliver Ekman-LarssonD18:07-0.80Nick PaulF15:32-0.92

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

MTL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Chris KreiderNick SuzukiCole Caufield10:28-0.41L2Alex NewhookJuraj SlafkovskýIvan Demidov9:57+0.13L3Phillip DanaultAlexandre TexierKirby Dach9:22-0.40L4Josh AndersonJake EvansZachary Bolduc7:17+0.59DEFENCE PAIRSD1Mike MathesonNoah Dobson16:46+0.11D2Alexandre CarrierLane Hutson15:31-0.39D3Jayden StrubleArber Xhekaj8:26+0.031ST2ND3RD011
TOR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Jack RoslovicAuston MatthewsKirill Marchenko12:48+0.62L2John TavaresWilliam NylanderGavin McKenna8:18-0.66L3Colton SissonsNick PaulEaston Cowan7:21+0.07L4Teddy BluegerBrandon DuhaimeZack MacEwen3:45-0.08DEFENCE PAIRSD1Morgan RiellyDarren Raddysh12:41+0.25D2Oliver Ekman-LarssonTroy Stecher11:55+0.02D3Chris TanevJake McCabe10:09+0.081ST2ND3RD011

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
MTL won the chances TOR won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
DobesKreiderSuzukiCaufieldNewhookSlafkovskýDemidovDanaultTexierDachAndersonEvansBolducMathesonDobsonCarrierHutsonStrubleXhekajBobrovskyRoslovicMatthewsMarchenkoTavaresNylanderMcKennaSissonsPaulCowanBluegerDuhaimeMacEwenRiellyRaddyshEkman-LarssonStecherTanevMcCabeGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are MTL's skaters, columns TOR's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
MTLJosh Anderson 1st10:53 0.60
MTLZachary Bolduc 2nd4:52 0.17
MTLAlexandre Carrier 3rd13:12 0.00
TORWilliam Nylander 1st0:48 0.04
TORWilliam Nylander 3rd15:46 0.18