NYI @ EDM
2026-01-15 · final 1–0 · what happened, next to what the engine said before puck drop
What happened
NYI attacks the left net, EDM the right — every unblocked attempt the game produced: × goals, • on net, ◦ missed (hover a marker for the shooter and its xG). To compare against the pregame call, switch the Surface to the engine's predicted-xG map — the shots land on top of where the engine expected the game to be played.
| NYI | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goals | 0 |
| 1.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 4.98 |
| 1.54 | 5v5 xG | 4.07 |
| 0.31 | Power-play xG | 0.87 |
| 18 | Shots on goal | 35 |
| 40 | Shot attempts | 75 |
Counts come from the shot table behind the maps: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals row can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal.
Goals
| Team | Scorer | Period | Strength | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | Anthony Duclair | 3 | PP | 0.19 |
The prediction, scored
Before puck drop the engine made EDM a 59.0% favorite, expecting a 2.61–3.13 game — NYI won 1–0, so the call missed. Every number in this section was issued before the game and is never re-graded.
| pred. xG | actual xG | pred. 5v5 | actual 5v5 | pred. ST | actual PP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 2.61 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.54 | 0.65 | 0.31 |
| EDM | 3.13 | 4.98 | 2.15 | 4.07 | 0.83 | 0.87 |
Predicted 5v5 / special-teams portions come from the map's strength splits (one shared scale per team pins the all-strengths total to its expected goals), so they don't sum exactly — the remainder is 4v4, 3v3, and other mixed states. The actual PP column is power-play xG only, the same bucket the map's special-teams view draws.
The pregame score grid
The likeliest finals the engine saw before the game, with what actually happened marked — ■ NYI · ■ EDM.
| Likeliest finals (NYI–EDM) | probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 2–3 | 5.6% | |
| 2–2 | 5.4% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 3–3 | 4.9% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 3–2 | 4.7% | |
| 2–4 | 4.4% | |
| 1–0 | 0.8% | what happened |
Scoreline odds treat the two teams' totals as independent — the engine's known simplification (it slightly under-counts regulation ties; the correlation term is registered v1.1 work). The OT/SO layer is a separate fitted model and is already inside the headline win probability.
The pregame read
The engine made EDM a 59.0% favorite — EDM controls 54.5% of the predicted xG. Of NYI's 2.61 expected goals, 1.80 should come at 5v5 and 0.65 on the power play; EDM projects 2.15 at 5v5 and 0.83 on the power play. The logistic challenger put the home side at 63.0%, Elo at 62.2%.
Tale of the tape
How each team fares on its own, season to date: per-game xG rates with league rank (of 32). Rank 1 is best on every row — orange ranks sit in the top third of the league, gray in the bottom third.
| NYI | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.84 (19th) | Offense xG for / game |
3.21 (3rd) |
| 3.10 (28th) | Defense xG against / game |
2.96 (21st) |
| 0.70 (17th) | Power play PP xG / game |
0.82 (3rd) |
| 0.78 (27th) | Penalty kill PP xG conceded / game |
0.73 (22nd) |
Season-to-date form as of the site's latest build, shown for context — the ratings the engine actually used were its own as-of-game-day state. Replay this matchup in the lab →