DAL @ UTA
2026-01-15 · final 1–2 · what happened, next to what the engine said before puck drop
What happened
DAL attacks the left net, UTA the right — every unblocked attempt the game produced: × goals, • on net, ◦ missed (hover a marker for the shooter and its xG). To compare against the pregame call, switch the Surface to the engine's predicted-xG map — the shots land on top of where the engine expected the game to be played.
| DAL | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goals | 2 |
| 2.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.48 |
| 1.60 | 5v5 xG | 2.01 |
| 0.99 | Power-play xG | 0.46 |
| 27 | Shots on goal | 27 |
| 48 | Shot attempts | 62 |
Counts come from the shot table behind the maps: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals row can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal.
Goals
| Team | Scorer | Period | Strength | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | Nick Schmaltz | 2 | 5v5 | 0.08 |
| DAL | Mikko Rantanen | 3 | PP | 0.51 |
| UTA | John Marino | 3 | 5v5 | 0.01 |
The prediction, scored
Before puck drop the engine made UTA a 55.7% favorite, expecting a 2.69–3.02 game — UTA won 1–2, so the call landed. Every number in this section was issued before the game and is never re-graded.
| pred. xG | actual xG | pred. 5v5 | actual 5v5 | pred. ST | actual PP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2.69 | 2.62 | 1.80 | 1.60 | 0.76 | 0.99 |
| UTA | 3.02 | 2.48 | 2.19 | 2.01 | 0.68 | 0.46 |
Predicted 5v5 / special-teams portions come from the map's strength splits (one shared scale per team pins the all-strengths total to its expected goals), so they don't sum exactly — the remainder is 4v4, 3v3, and other mixed states. The actual PP column is power-play xG only, the same bucket the map's special-teams view draws.
The pregame score grid
The likeliest finals the engine saw before the game, with what actually happened marked — ■ DAL · ■ UTA.
| Likeliest finals (DAL–UTA) | probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 2–3 | 5.5% | |
| 2–2 | 5.5% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 3–3 | 4.9% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 3–2 | 4.9% | |
| 2–4 | 4.2% | |
| 1–2 | 4.1% | what happened |
Scoreline odds treat the two teams' totals as independent — the engine's known simplification (it slightly under-counts regulation ties; the correlation term is registered v1.1 work). The OT/SO layer is a separate fitted model and is already inside the headline win probability.
The pregame read
The engine made UTA a 55.7% favorite — UTA controls 52.9% of the predicted xG. Of DAL's 2.69 expected goals, 1.80 should come at 5v5 and 0.76 on the power play; UTA projects 2.19 at 5v5 and 0.68 on the power play. The logistic challenger put the home side at 55.0%, Elo at 51.0%.
Tale of the tape
How each team fares on its own, season to date: per-game xG rates with league rank (of 32). Rank 1 is best on every row — orange ranks sit in the top third of the league, gray in the bottom third.
| DAL | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.94 (12th) | Offense xG for / game |
2.92 (14th) |
| 2.65 (6th) | Defense xG against / game |
2.77 (11th) |
| 0.79 (4th) | Power play PP xG / game |
0.64 (24th) |
| 0.65 (9th) | Penalty kill PP xG conceded / game |
0.73 (21st) |
Season-to-date form as of the site's latest build, shown for context — the ratings the engine actually used were its own as-of-game-day state. Replay this matchup in the lab →