SEA @ BOS
2026-01-15 · final 2–4 · what happened, next to what the engine said before puck drop
What happened
SEA attacks the left net, BOS the right — every unblocked attempt the game produced: × goals, • on net, ◦ missed (hover a marker for the shooter and its xG). To compare against the pregame call, switch the Surface to the engine's predicted-xG map — the shots land on top of where the engine expected the game to be played.
| SEA | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Goals | 3 |
| 3.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.16 |
| 1.60 | 5v5 xG | 1.39 |
| 1.89 | Power-play xG | 0.68 |
| 28 | Shots on goal | 23 |
| 62 | Shot attempts | 46 |
Counts come from the shot table behind the maps: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals row can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal.
Goals
| Team | Scorer | Period | Strength | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Chandler Stephenson | 1 | PP | 0.10 |
| BOS | Marat Khusnutdinov | 1 | 5v5 | 0.31 |
| BOS | Viktor Arvidsson | 1 | 5v5 | 0.07 |
| SEA | Eeli Tolvanen | 2 | PP | 0.21 |
| BOS | Mark Kastelic | 2 | PK | 0.08 |
The prediction, scored
Before puck drop the engine made BOS a 63.3% favorite, expecting a 2.24–3.01 game — BOS won 2–4, so the call landed. Every number in this section was issued before the game and is never re-graded.
| pred. xG | actual xG | pred. 5v5 | actual 5v5 | pred. ST | actual PP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 2.24 | 3.49 | 1.52 | 1.60 | 0.61 | 1.89 |
| BOS | 3.01 | 2.16 | 2.10 | 1.39 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
Predicted 5v5 / special-teams portions come from the map's strength splits (one shared scale per team pins the all-strengths total to its expected goals), so they don't sum exactly — the remainder is 4v4, 3v3, and other mixed states. The actual PP column is power-play xG only, the same bucket the map's special-teams view draws.
The pregame score grid
The likeliest finals the engine saw before the game, with what actually happened marked — ■ SEA · ■ BOS.
| Likeliest finals (SEA–BOS) | probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 2–3 | 6.0% | |
| 2–2 | 6.0% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 1–3 | 5.4% | |
| 1–2 | 5.3% | |
| 2–4 | 4.5% | what happened |
Scoreline odds treat the two teams' totals as independent — the engine's known simplification (it slightly under-counts regulation ties; the correlation term is registered v1.1 work). The OT/SO layer is a separate fitted model and is already inside the headline win probability.
The pregame read
The engine made BOS a 63.3% favorite — BOS controls 57.4% of the predicted xG. Of SEA's 2.24 expected goals, 1.52 should come at 5v5 and 0.61 on the power play; BOS projects 2.10 at 5v5 and 0.73 on the power play. The logistic challenger put the home side at 67.9%, Elo at 65.2%.
Tale of the tape
How each team fares on its own, season to date: per-game xG rates with league rank (of 32). Rank 1 is best on every row — orange ranks sit in the top third of the league, gray in the bottom third.
| SEA | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 (31st) | Offense xG for / game |
2.70 (23rd) |
| 2.93 (17th) | Defense xG against / game |
3.12 (29th) |
| 0.61 (28th) | Power play PP xG / game |
0.68 (20th) |
| 0.66 (15th) | Penalty kill PP xG conceded / game |
0.88 (32nd) |
Season-to-date form as of the site's latest build, shown for context — the ratings the engine actually used were its own as-of-game-day state. Replay this matchup in the lab →