xJawn NHL expected goals

League table

2025-26 · regular season · click a column to sort · xGF% = xGF / (xGF + xGA) · xGF/60 = xGF per 60 min at the selected strength

Conference, division and the W–L–OTL record and points are all-situations official results — they do not move with the strength filter. Everything from GF rightward is the selected strength only.

Shooting and Saving are the modeled columns: goals above league average that this roster's rated finishing was worth on the shots it took, and that its goalies' rated saving removed from the shots it faced. Positive is good on both. Adj xGF% re-scores every shot through both terms at once (the shooter's and the defending goalie's) and re-takes the share, so it still averages 50% across the league exactly as xGF% does.

Read the level of Shooting and Saving with care. Most teams show positive on both, which is an artifact rather than a league of above-average rosters: the ratings are fit as-of the latest date across sixteen seasons, and league finishing has risen over that span, so a current-season roster sits above the all-time average by construction. The spread between teams is the meaningful part, not the zero point. Adj xGF% is not affected — the drift lands on both ends of every shot and cancels in the share.

These three are descriptive, not predictive. They say what the roster's rated skill was worth on shots already taken — the same claim as a team page's modeled-talent ledger. They are not a better forecast: tested head-to-head, adjusting the chance share does not out-predict plain xGF% at future goal share (+0.019, p = 0.192), and the goalie half of the adjustment does not carry forward at all. Read them as a description of what happened, and read xGF% when you want the forward-looking number. Ratings are a per-shot quality measure only — never a claim about how many shots a player takes.

Team Conf Div GP W L OTL PTS GF GA xGF xGA xGF% xGF/60 xGA/60 Shooting Saving Adj xGF%
COL Colorado Avalanche Western Central 82 55 16 11 121 216 128 205.7 148.1 58.1% 3.13 2.25 +14.4 +7.3 58.6%
CAR Carolina Hurricanes Eastern Metropolitan 82 53 22 7 113 184 160 199.0 154.8 56.3% 2.99 2.32 -4.6 +9.4 54.5%
TBL Tampa Bay Lightning Eastern Atlantic 82 50 26 6 106 195 152 182.0 145.0 55.7% 2.79 2.22 +15.9 +2.3 55.7%
OTT Ottawa Senators Eastern Atlantic 82 44 27 11 99 179 163 173.3 140.1 55.3% 2.65 2.14 +1.2 +0.7 53.1%
VGK Vegas Golden Knights Western Pacific 82 39 26 17 95 174 172 181.3 149.3 54.8% 2.66 2.19 +11.3 +3.2 54.5%
UTA Utah Mammoth Western Central 82 43 33 6 92 185 163 180.8 160.5 53.0% 2.72 2.41 +13.3 +3.8 53.1%
LAK Los Angeles Kings Western Pacific 82 35 27 20 90 152 140 164.0 151.4 52.0% 2.44 2.25 +3.2 +6.2 51.0%
CBJ Columbus Blue Jackets Eastern Metropolitan 82 40 30 12 92 174 162 178.4 166.1 51.8% 2.63 2.45 +11.6 +11.3 53.0%
DAL Dallas Stars Western Central 82 50 20 12 112 170 138 163.0 152.2 51.7% 2.47 2.30 +15.9 +12.6 53.8%
BUF Buffalo Sabres Eastern Atlantic 82 50 23 9 109 194 156 172.2 164.0 51.2% 2.61 2.49 +12.3 +4.7 51.4%
EDM Edmonton Oilers Western Pacific 82 41 30 11 93 174 188 184.2 175.9 51.1% 2.69 2.57 +9.5 +3.7 50.2%
PIT Pittsburgh Penguins Eastern Metropolitan 82 41 25 16 98 201 175 180.6 173.3 51.0% 2.70 2.59 +12.9 +1.3 50.5%
PHI Philadelphia Flyers Eastern Metropolitan 82 43 27 12 98 161 149 156.0 150.6 50.9% 2.35 2.27 +4.1 -1.4 48.7%
MIN Minnesota Wild Western Central 82 46 24 12 104 168 158 172.6 168.3 50.6% 2.57 2.50 +16.6 +10.6 51.9%
MTL Montréal Canadiens Eastern Atlantic 82 48 24 10 106 184 160 175.8 171.6 50.6% 2.69 2.62 +5.1 +15.4 51.2%
STL St. Louis Blues Western Central 82 37 33 12 86 164 174 162.6 158.9 50.6% 2.41 2.36 +16.0 +6.2 51.7%
ANA Anaheim Ducks Western Pacific 82 43 33 6 92 172 190 180.9 177.5 50.5% 2.77 2.72 +7.3 +4.8 50.1%
FLA Florida Panthers Eastern Atlantic 82 40 38 4 84 162 181 160.7 158.7 50.3% 2.48 2.45 +2.6 +3.4 48.8%
WSH Washington Capitals Eastern Metropolitan 82 43 30 9 95 179 147 175.5 174.8 50.1% 2.67 2.66 +11.6 +17.2 51.8%
NYR New York Rangers Eastern Metropolitan 82 34 39 9 77 153 156 149.4 160.7 48.2% 2.22 2.39 +11.9 +18.8 51.0%
NJD New Jersey Devils Eastern Metropolitan 82 42 37 3 87 136 183 163.6 176.1 48.2% 2.40 2.58 +2.2 +6.9 46.8%
WPG Winnipeg Jets Western Central 82 35 35 12 82 155 171 153.8 167.8 47.8% 2.29 2.50 +9.9 +11.1 48.7%
BOS Boston Bruins Eastern Atlantic 82 45 27 10 100 182 150 155.5 169.8 47.8% 2.37 2.58 +12.9 +10.1 49.0%
NSH Nashville Predators Western Central 82 38 34 10 86 151 180 160.0 175.8 47.6% 2.43 2.67 +12.3 +12.1 48.8%
SJS San Jose Sharks Western Pacific 82 39 35 8 86 163 190 156.9 173.2 47.5% 2.38 2.62 +5.3 -0.2 45.8%
DET Detroit Red Wings Eastern Atlantic 82 41 31 10 92 142 169 157.5 176.1 47.2% 2.36 2.63 +7.5 +12.9 47.6%
NYI New York Islanders Eastern Metropolitan 82 43 34 5 91 145 159 160.7 182.2 46.9% 2.43 2.76 +7.9 +16.4 48.1%
SEA Seattle Kraken Western Pacific 82 34 37 11 79 153 160 149.3 174.7 46.1% 2.19 2.56 +10.9 +4.6 46.1%
CGY Calgary Flames Western Pacific 82 34 39 9 77 143 176 148.6 176.9 45.7% 2.24 2.67 +0.7 +8.0 44.6%
TOR Toronto Maple Leafs Eastern Atlantic 82 32 36 14 78 171 206 153.7 186.0 45.2% 2.28 2.76 +14.8 +10.9 46.6%
CHI Chicago Blackhawks Western Central 82 29 39 14 72 151 198 143.6 187.0 43.4% 2.14 2.79 +5.3 +2.0 42.1%
VAN Vancouver Canucks Western Pacific 82 25 49 8 58 131 210 146.5 200.7 42.2% 2.18 2.99 +4.6 +1.9 40.8%

Offense vs defense

Each team at its xGF/60 (right = more offense) vs xGA/60 (up = fewer allowed — the y-axis is inverted). The dashed y = x line is equal offense and defense: teams in the top-right outscore expected on both ends. Rates use real time-on-ice at the selected strength. Special teams is asymmetric — the x-axis is power-play xGF/60 and the y-axis is penalty-kill xGA/60, so the axes label a team's two special-teams units.

Chances switches the basis: xG plots the raw model chances, Adjusted xG re-scores every shot through the shooter's rated finishing and the defending goalie's rated saving — the same closed correction behind the Adj xGF% column, so it is descriptive, not a better forecast.