CGY @ EDM

The engine makes EDM a 63.7% favorite, expecting a 2.65–3.49 game — EDM controls 56.9% of the predicted xG. Of CGY's 2.65 expected goals, 1.98 should come at 5v5 and 0.55 on the power play; EDM projects 2.28 at 5v5 and 1.06 on the power play. The logistic challenger puts the home side at 66.5%, Elo at 65.0%.

Open this matchup in the lab → to swap sides or adjust each team's rest situation.

The same Poisson engine, read as a full score distribution instead of a single number: likeliest finals, how often the game needs more than regulation, and each team's goal spread — ■ CGY · ■ EDM.

Scoreline odds are the engine's own grid: each team's goals as a Poisson count, with the fitted adjustment for how often games end tied after regulation (ρ = 0.35), so these odds and the headline win probability come from the same numbers. The OT/SO layer is a separate fitted model and is already inside the headline win probability.

CGY attacks the left net, EDM the right. Each end multiplies where the attacking team generates xG this season by where its opponent concedes it (both vs league), scaled so each end totals the engine's expected goals — both ends share one colour axis, so the favorite's end reads hotter. vs league average recolours the map as % above/below a league-average matchup; Special teams pairs each side's power play with the other's penalty kill. Season-to-date shot locations, empty-netters excluded.

5v5 / special-teams portions come from the map's strength splits (one shared scale per team pins the all-strengths total to its expected goals), so they don't sum exactly — the remainder is 4v4, 3v3, and other mixed states.

How each team fares on its own, season to date: per-game xG rates with league rank (of 32). Rank 1 is best on every row — orange ranks sit in the top third of the league, gray in the bottom third.